Jiangxi Copper ups its approach for SolGold with 28p-a-share proposal

Jiangxi Copper has raised its indicative cash offer for SolGold to 28p a share, valuing the Ecuador-focused miner at about £842m—roughly a 43% premium to the pre-approach price and more than double the one-year average. SolGold’s board said it would be minded to recommend a formal bid on these terms; Jiangxi already holds 12.2% and has secured support from major shareholders including BHP, Newmont, Maxit Capital and founder Nicholas Mather, representing about 40.7% of the register and giving the proposal early momentum. The bidder proposes a court-approved scheme (with the option of a conventional bid), says any offer would be fully funded from cash and a committed bank facility, but the transaction remains contingent on Chinese outbound investment approval and there is no certainty a firm offer will be made.

Analysis

Jiangxi Copper has raised its indicative cash offer for SolGold to 28p a share, valuing the Ecuador-focused miner at approximately £842m and representing roughly a 43% premium to the pre-approach price in late November and more than double the one-year average share level. SolGold's board has indicated it would be minded to recommend a formal bid on these terms, signalling constructive engagement between the parties.

Jiangxi already holds 12.2% of SolGold and has secured support commitments from major shareholders including BHP, Newmont, Maxit Capital and founder Nicholas Mather, which together represent about 40.7% of the register and provide early momentum for a potential transaction. The bidder proposes a court-approved scheme of arrangement (with an option to switch to a conventional bid) and says any offer would be fully funded from existing cash and a committed bank facility.

The primary execution risk is regulatory: Jiangxi must obtain Chinese outbound investment approval, a process that has begun but leaves no certainty an offer will materialise. Market signals are moderately positive with a market impact score of 0.52, implying the news should support the share price near the proposed level while regulatory and shareholder thresholds remain unresolved.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Consider a tactical increase in exposure to SolGold to capture the 28p implied premium, but size positions conservatively given uncertainty over Chinese outbound approval
• Monitor shareholder backing and whether commitments expand beyond the current 40.7% and formal board recommendation materialises, as these developments materially increase deal probability
• Watch regulatory milestones closely and be prepared to hedge or trim positions if approvals falter or timelines extend, since the offer remains contingent on Chinese clearance
• If a firm, court-backed scheme at 28p is announced and funding is confirmed, consider exiting to realise the premium relative to recent trading levels while reassessing longer-term exposure to Ecuador-focused copper risk