Kepler’s technical analysts see gold price potentially exceeding 4,000

Gold prices have reached a new inflation-adjusted high, surpassing May's peak by over 3% and exceeding the 1981 intraday high, according to Kepler analysis. This move confirms a bullish continuation signal under William W. Gann’s rule, with potential for prices to rise to $3,880-$4,060 if they maintain position above $3,424. However, Kepler also highlights that the current price now exceeds the historical maximum indicated by the 1981 level on the inflation-adjusted chart and identifies late September as a potential timing for a market top.

Analysis

Gold has registered a significant technical breakout, reaching a new inflation-adjusted high that surpasses its previous peak from May by over 3% and also exceeds the historical intraday high set in 1981. According to analysis from Kepler, this price action confirms a bullish continuation signal under William W. Gann's rule, suggesting potential for further appreciation. The firm projects a price target corridor of $3,880 to $4,060, contingent upon the price maintaining support above the prior top of $3,424. However, this bullish outlook is tempered by a specific cautionary note. Kepler has identified late September, particularly September 8-9 or the end of the month, as a potential timeframe for a directional change, which could signal a market top. The fact that current prices have now breached a level historically viewed as a potential maximum introduces uncertainty, creating a mixed signal of a strong upward trend entering potentially overextended territory.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Given the bullish technical breakout, investors may consider maintaining or initiating long exposure to gold, using the $3,424 level as a critical support threshold for risk management.
• The explicit warning of a potential market top in late September suggests that traders should consider implementing protective strategies, such as setting trailing stops or using options to hedge long positions as that timeframe approaches.
• The price targets of $3,880-$4,060 should be viewed as speculative projections based on technical patterns; therefore, investors should monitor for signs of momentum exhaustion rather than treating these levels as guaranteed outcomes.