Should You Buy Warren Buffett's Top 3 Stocks of 2026 So Far?

Buffett-linked holdings Mitsubishi and Marubeni are outperforming in 2026, with Mitsubishi up about 45% year to date and Marubeni highlighted as a major winner, helped by demand for LNG, copper, and other materials plus aggressive buybacks and dividend growth. DaVita has risen about 30% YTD after beating Q4 revenue and earnings estimates and raising/affirming strong full-year 2026 guidance, though Berkshire trimmed its position earlier this year. The piece is primarily commentary on valuation and portfolio positioning rather than new company-specific catalysts.

Analysis

The market is rewarding balance-sheet discipline more than headline growth here. Mitsubishi and Marubeni are effectively long global industrial activity with embedded optionality on energy transition inputs and buyback-heavy capital allocation; that combination can keep EPS compounding even if top-line growth slows, because repurchases mechanically amplify per-share results when local valuations remain below global peers. The second-order implication is that Berkshire’s Japanese exposure is now behaving less like a passive value bet and more like a quasi-cyclical compounder with shareholder yield support.

DaVita is the more interesting setup because it has re-rated on execution while still trading at a valuation that implies skepticism about durability. The market is likely underestimating how sticky the cash-flow profile is when utilization is stable and reimbursement noise is absent; however, the stock has less room for multiple expansion if growth normalizes, so the upside is more about continued guide-raised beats than a rerating to healthcare comps. The partnership with Ares in home-health adjacent services suggests management is trying to broaden the earnings base, which can be additive over 12-24 months if capital deployment stays disciplined.

The contrarian risk is that this is a late-cycle quality trade masquerading as “Buffett conviction.” If commodities soften or LNG/copper momentum fades, the Japanese names can de-lever from operating leverage plus buyback support faster than investors expect, especially if the yen strengthens. For DaVita, the main reversal catalyst is not demand but policy: any reimbursement pressure, enforcement overhang, or margin normalization after a strong guide could compress the multiple quickly because expectations have already risen with the move.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Stay long DVA on pullbacks over a 3-6 month horizon; target continued earnings beats, but use a tight risk budget because the stock can re-rate down 10-15% on any guidance miss or reimbursement headline.
• Prefer a pair trade long DVA / short a basket of lower-quality healthcare services names over 1-2 quarters; the setup favors recurring cash flow with buybacks versus companies more exposed to labor or reimbursement friction.
• For the Japanese trading houses, favor long BRK.B as the cleaner U.S. proxy for the basket rather than chasing the OTC names directly; this reduces ADR/liquidity and FX noise while preserving the thesis on capital allocation and resource exposure.
• If you want direct exposure, buy small on MARUY or MSBHF only on 5-8% drawdowns and hold 6-12 months; the risk/reward is best when entry coincides with commodity consolidation rather than momentum extremes.
• Avoid adding fresh longs after sharp one-week gains; instead consider covered calls on DVA to monetize elevated sentiment while capping downside risk if the market has already priced in the next beat.