July 25th Options Now Available For Moderna (MRNA)

Analysis of Moderna (MRNA) options reveals potential strategies for investors. Selling a $26 put offers an 8.04% return if it expires worthless, with a 60% probability based on current data; this strategy allows purchase of the stock at a discount. Selling a $29 covered call generates a 14.83% return if the stock is called away, but carries a 56% chance of expiring worthless, yielding a 6.22% premium while retaining the shares.

Analysis

The analysis highlights two specific options strategies for Moderna (MRNA) stock, currently trading at $26.70 per share. Selling a put contract at the $26.00 strike price, with a bid of $2.09, offers an investor the opportunity to acquire shares at an effective cost basis of $23.91, a discount from the current market price, or to realize an 8.04% return (58.68% annualized YieldBoost) on the cash commitment if the put expires worthless; current analytics suggest a 60% probability of this outcome. Alternatively, for investors holding MRNA shares, selling a covered call at the $29.00 strike with a bid of $1.66 could generate a total return of 14.83% if the stock is called away by the July 25th expiration, or provide a 6.22% premium (45.39% annualized YieldBoost) if the call expires worthless, an event with a current estimated probability of 56%. Both strategies involve out-of-the-money options, with the $26.00 put being approximately 3% below and the $29.00 call approximately 9% above the current stock price. The implied volatility for both option examples is approximately 72%, slightly above the calculated trailing twelve-month actual volatility of 69%, suggesting option premiums may offer a modest edge to sellers relative to recent realized price movements.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors interested in acquiring Moderna (MRNA) shares at a lower effective price than $26.70 could consider selling the $26.00 strike put to achieve a cost basis of $23.91 if assigned, or earn an 8.04% premium if the option expires worthless given the 60% probability.
• Current MRNA shareholders seeking to generate income and willing to cap upside potential could evaluate selling the $29.00 strike covered call, targeting a 14.83% total return if called away by July 25th or a 6.22% premium if it expires worthless, noting the 56% chance of the latter.
• Given the implied volatility of ~72% slightly exceeds the historical volatility of 69%, option selling strategies might be marginally more attractive, but investors should monitor the changing probabilities of expiration and align strategies with their fundamental view on MRNA.