Citizens JMP raises Affirm stock price target to $105 on strong growth

Citizens JMP raised its price target on Affirm Holdings Inc. (AFRM) to $105 from $75, maintaining a Market Outperform rating, following the company's robust Q4 FY25 results. Affirm significantly surpassed expectations with EPS of $0.20 and revenue of $876.42 million, while demonstrating accelerating Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) growth of 43%. The analyst highlighted the absence of weaknesses across key metrics and expressed confidence in Affirm's sustained execution, expanding operating leverage, and strong FY26 guidance, leading to a positive market reaction.

Analysis

Affirm Holdings (AFRM) has demonstrated significant operational strength, leading Citizens JMP to increase its price target by 40% to $105.00 while reiterating a Market Outperform rating. The catalyst for this revised outlook was the company's fiscal fourth-quarter 2025 results, which surpassed analyst expectations on both the top and bottom lines. Affirm reported earnings per share of $0.20 against a forecast of $0.12, a notable 66.67% surprise, and revenue of $876.42 million versus an anticipated $834.35 million. Critically, Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) growth accelerated to 43% from 36% in the prior quarter, indicating strengthening consumer adoption and platform usage. The analyst's commentary highlighted a lack of weaknesses across key operational areas—including consumer demand, credit quality, and operating leverage—and cited the company's initial FY26 guidance as further validation of its robust and sustainable growth trajectory.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Consider the strong Q4 performance, with a 66.67% EPS surprise and accelerating GMV growth to 43%, as a key validation of Affirm's business model and market position.
• Monitor the company's ability to meet or exceed its initial FY26 guidance, as sustained execution on this outlook is a primary driver behind the analyst's upgraded $105 price target.
• Given the stock's impressive 92% return over the past year, investors should weigh the positive operational momentum against potentially elevated market expectations and valuation.