Soybeans Continue Selling on Monday Morning

Soybean futures are experiencing continued selling pressure, down 13-14 cents on Monday morning after significant losses last week, driven by market disappointment over the lack of progress in U.S.-China trade talks and subdued Chinese buying following the recent Trump-Xi phone call. This weakness is compounded by sluggish 2025/26 export commitments, which are only 22% of the USDA projection compared to an average of 43% for this period, despite managed money having recently turned net long as of September 16th.

Analysis

Soybean futures are exhibiting significant downward pressure, extending losses from the prior week with declines of 13 to 14 cents in Monday trading. The sell-off is directly linked to market disappointment following a phone call between the U.S. and Chinese presidents, which failed to yield tangible progress towards a trade deal or stimulate new Chinese buying. This bearish sentiment is fundamentally supported by lagging export sales for the 2025/26 season, with commitments at 10.277 MMT, representing only 22% of the USDA projection, substantially behind the historical average pace of 43%. While CFTC data as of September 16th indicated that managed money had flipped to a net long position of 2,287 contracts, this positioning appears to be under pressure from the negative price action and new selling, as evidenced by a 6,571 contract increase in preliminary open interest. In contrast, commercial participants have increased their net short position to 119,674 contracts, signaling hedging activity against further price declines. The weakness is broad-based across the soy complex, with both soymeal and soy oil futures also trading lower.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Given the sustained selling pressure, weak export fundamentals, and lack of a positive trade catalyst, investors should consider maintaining a bearish stance or short positions in soybean futures and related instruments.
• The market is highly sensitive to geopolitical news, so any concrete announcement of Chinese purchases or substantive trade progress would be a primary signal to reassess short exposure.
• Monitor upcoming CFTC reports closely, as the recent shift by managed money to a net long position could lead to forced liquidations and accelerate the price decline if the market continues to fall.