Russian Oil Flows Show Buyers Shunning Trump’s Push to End Trade

Russian seaborne crude exports held steady at a 16-month high, averaging 3.62 million barrels a day up to September 28, matching May 2024 levels. This demonstrates the ineffectiveness of US President Donald Trump's efforts to deter buyers, underscoring persistent global demand for Russian oil despite geopolitical pressures.

Analysis

Russian seaborne crude exports have demonstrated significant resilience against US diplomatic pressure, with four-week average shipments holding steady at a 16-month high of 3.62 million barrels a day as of September 28. This figure, which matches the peak from May 2024, indicates that President Trump's initiative to persuade global buyers to shun Moscow's oil has thus far been ineffective. The use of a four-week moving average provides a clear signal that the underlying trend of high export volumes is stable, smoothing out more volatile weekly data. The persistence of these flows suggests that global demand for Russian crude remains robust, or that buyers are willing to absorb the geopolitical risk, effectively maintaining a consistent supply into the global market despite the political headwinds.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should consider that the steady flow of Russian oil acts as a stabilizing force on global supply, potentially limiting the upside for crude prices based on fears of a Russian supply disruption.
• Traders should prioritize tracking physical vessel data over reacting to political statements, as the current market demonstrates a clear disconnect between diplomatic rhetoric and actual trade flows.
• Monitor for any shift from diplomatic pressure to more concrete enforcement actions, such as secondary sanctions, as the failure of the current approach could provoke a more aggressive US policy response that might materially impact supply.