Wheat Gains Extending to Friday’s Midday

Wheat futures are up across Chicago, Kansas City, and Minneapolis markets, driven by potential harvest delays due to rains in key southern states and strong export sales. The USDA's Export Sales report indicates forward book wheat sales for 2025/26 are at their highest level since 2021, already accounting for 24.5% of the USDA's new crop export forecast. FranceAgriMer also reported a slight decline in the good/excellent rating for France's soft wheat crop, adding further upward pressure.

Analysis

Wheat futures across Chicago SRW, Kansas City HRW, and Minneapolis markets are exhibiting upward momentum, with gains ranging from 4 to 8 cents at midday on Friday. This price strength is underpinned by several factors: anticipated rains in key U.S. southern plains states (Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas) threatening to slow early harvest activities; robust U.S. export demand, evidenced by the 2025/26 forward sales book reaching 5.366 million metric tons (MMT)—the highest for this specific week since 2021 and already accounting for 24.5% of the USDA's new crop export forecast; and concerns over international supply as FranceAgriMer reported a decline in French soft wheat crop conditions to 69% good/excellent, down from 70% previously, with durum crop ratings also falling by 2% to 73% good/excellent. These combined elements suggest a tightening supply outlook and strong demand, contributing to the current bullish sentiment in the wheat complex.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should note the confluence of bullish factors currently supporting wheat prices, including potential U.S. harvest delays due to weather, strong forward export sales figures, and deteriorating crop conditions in France.
• Monitoring upcoming weather developments in U.S. wheat-growing regions and subsequent harvest progress reports will be critical for assessing near-term price direction and potential supply impacts.
• The strength in U.S. export commitments, particularly their historically high level for this week since 2021 and significant proportion of the USDA's annual forecast, warrants close attention as a key demand-side driver that could sustain price support.