Will Best Buy's Stock Rise On Its Upcoming Earnings?

Best Buy (BBY) is set to release fiscal Q1 earnings on May 29, 2025, with analysts anticipating $1.09 EPS on $8.82 billion in revenue, reflecting a 4% YoY earnings decline and flat sales growth. The company's FY26 revenue guidance projects $41.4-$42.2 billion with 0-2% comparable sales growth, not accounting for potential tariff impacts, while expecting continued consumer caution due to persistent inflation. Historically, BBY stock has risen post-earnings 58% of the time, with a median one-day increase of 3.9%, suggesting potential opportunities for event-driven traders.

Analysis

Best Buy is scheduled to report its fiscal first-quarter 2025 earnings on May 29, 2025, with analysts forecasting earnings per share of $1.09 on $8.82 billion in revenue. This projection indicates a 4% year-over-year decline in earnings from $1.13 per share and essentially flat sales compared to the $8.85 billion reported in the prior year's corresponding quarter. For the full fiscal year 2026, Best Buy has guided revenue to a range of $41.4 billion to $42.2 billion, a slight potential increase from $41.5 billion in fiscal 2025, and anticipates comparable sales growth between 0% and 2%; importantly, this guidance does not incorporate the potential impact of tariffs. The company anticipates consumer behavior will mirror the cautious yet resilient patterns observed in fiscal 2025, driven by persistent high inflation impacting household expenses and promoting a value-conscious approach to discretionary purchases, particularly for big-ticket items. Best Buy currently holds a market capitalization of $15 billion, with last-twelve-months revenue at $42 billion, generating $1.3 billion in operating profit and $927 million in net income. Historically, BBY stock has demonstrated a tendency to rise post-earnings, occurring 58% of the time over the last five years with a median one-day gain of 3.9%, a figure that increases to 64% if considering the last three years, though median negative returns have been 5.9%.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should note the anticipated near-term pressure on Best Buy's Q1 earnings and sales, contrasting with a relatively stable full-year revenue and comparable sales growth guidance for FY26, albeit with comparable sales growth projected at a modest 0% to 2%.
• Closely track indicators of consumer discretionary spending and inflation, as Best Buy's performance is highly sensitive to these factors, particularly for big-ticket items, and monitor any commentary on the potential impact of tariffs, which are currently excluded from guidance.
• Given the historical pattern of BBY stock's post-earnings movement (positive 58-64% of the time with a median +3.9% rise, versus a median -5.9% decline on negative reactions), event-driven traders might assess opportunities around the earnings release, while long-term investors should weigh the company's operational profitability against the challenging macroeconomic backdrop and modest growth outlook.