Possible Stock Splits in 2026: 2 Unstoppable Stocks Up 450% and 550% in 3 Years to Buy Now, According to Wall Street

Meta Platforms (up ~450% since Dec 2022) and Coinbase Global (up ~550% since Dec 2022) are highlighted as buyable despite triple‑digit share prices and potential stock‑split candidates; Wall Street median price targets are $837 for Meta (~25% upside) and $372 for Coinbase (~53% upside). Meta is driving AI investment and seeing improvements in ad prices and impressions but plans to raise capex from a projected $70–$72bn in 2025 toward >$100bn in 2026, which has pressured shares; Coinbase’s revenue is concentrated in consumer transaction fees, benefits from custody wins for crypto ETFs and its USDC stablecoin interest model, with a forward P/E near 36 and sensitivity to Bitcoin market cycles.

Analysis

Market structure: Meta (META) and Coinbase (COIN) are direct beneficiaries of two structural demand shifts — programmatic ad effectiveness from generative AI and consolidation toward trusted crypto custodians. Meta’s AI-driven ability to lift both CPMs and impressions implies upward ARPU pressure; NVDA/AI-hardware vendors also win from higher AI capex, while smaller ad publishers and low-liquidity exchanges lose share. For crypto, custody and USDC yield capture create recurring revenue that partially de-correlates COIN from spot trading volume volatility.

Risk assessment: Tail risks include aggressive regulatory action on stablecoins (reserve rules) or AI advertising (privacy/antitrust) and operational overruns on Meta’s push toward >$100B capex in 2026, which could compress EPS via depreciation even if FCF improves. Immediate (days) risk: quarter/cryptocurrency price shocks; short-term (weeks–months): guidance revisions and BTC moves; long-term (1–3+ years): ROI on capex and monetization of AI agents. Hidden dependency: Meta’s FCF outlook is highly sensitive to ad engagement elasticity and AI model/op/unit economics; Coinbase’s revenue remains a function of BTC volatility and Fed policy-driven yields on US Treasuries backing USDC.

Trade implications: Establish differentiated exposures — prefer buy-and-hold core for META to capture AI ad upside and optionality from a potential split, and tactical, volatility-aware exposure to COIN using time-limited option structures ahead of any BTC-driven catalyst. Use 6–12 month call spreads on META to limit premium and 9–12 month bull call spreads or LEAP call buys for COIN to ride a BTC rally while capping downside; overweight AI hardware suppliers (NVDA) on any pullbacks as a correlated hedge. Rotate out of small-cap ad publishers and standalone retail exchanges where network effects are weak.

Contrarian angles: The market may be overpricing capex fear on META — if ad CPM trends persist, higher depreciation could be offset by accelerating ARPU within 12–18 months, making current downside windows buying opportunities. Conversely, COIN’s consensus upside assumes a BTC run; absent that, its ~36x forward P/E is vulnerable — the mispricing is that custody/USDC revenue durability is underappreciated while trading revenue cyclicality is overstated. Watch for unintended consequences: massive capex + slower EPS growth can trigger multiple compression even as intrinsic value rises, so hedge position sizing accordingly.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 2–3% portfolio long position in META over the next 4 weeks (scale in 25% tranches); hedge initial position with a 6-month 10% OTM put (size 25% of position) and/or buy a 6–12 month call spread (buy ATM, sell 25–35% OTM) to cap cost; trim into strength toward the $837 median analyst target or hold 12–24 months if ad CPMs continue to rise.
• Establish a tactical 1–2% position in COIN via a 9–12 month bull call spread (buy ATM LEAP call, sell ~50% OTM) to capture upside if BTC rallies; add incremental exposure if BTC > $60k or COIN wins additional institutional custody mandates; cap aggregate downside to ~20% of position size via the spread structure.
• Enter a relative-value trade: long META (1–2%) vs short weak ad-platform/retail-exchange exposure (~1% short) — use ETFs or single names for the short leg — to capture divergent AI monetization and network-effect strength over the next 6–18 months.
• Reduce exposure to small-cap programmatic ad publishers by 20–30% and rotate proceeds into AI hardware (e.g., NVDA) and ad-platform leaders (META) within 30 days; rebalance if Meta’s 2026 capex guidance rises above $100B without commensurate ARPU gains.
• Monitor specific regulatory/catalyst triggers over the next 30–90 days and act: (a) any SEC/FSOC guidance tightening stablecoin reserve rules (sell COIN >15% on announcement risk), (b) FTC/DOJ probes into targeted ad algorithms (reduce META by 10% if formal action announced), and (c) weekly Bitcoin price crossing $60k/$45k thresholds to scale COIN exposure up/down by 50% increments.