Melius raises Apple stock price target to $260 on iPhone growth outlook

Apple (AAPL) received a price target upgrade to $260 from Melius Research, which cited strong upcoming iPhone product cycles, including an "iPhone Air" and a foldable model, and anticipated higher gross margins driving increased FY26 and FY27 EPS estimates. Separately, Apple announced a significant expansion of its U.S. manufacturing and supply chain investment by $100 billion to a total of $600 billion, a strategic move that has reportedly secured tariff exemptions on imported goods and garnered positive analyst sentiment, with firms like BofA Securities and Evercore ISI also raising price targets. These developments highlight Apple's robust product pipeline and its efforts to strengthen domestic operations.

Analysis

Apple is experiencing a confluence of positive catalysts, driving strong bullish sentiment among analysts. Melius Research raised its price target to $260, citing a robust multi-year product pipeline that includes an "iPhone Air" this September, a high-end foldable model by fiscal year 2026, and a 20th-anniversary device in late fiscal 2027. The firm dismisses concerns over AI delays as "overblown" and projects accelerated high single-digit growth in coming quarters, leading to an upward revision of its FY26 earnings per share estimate by 12 cents on improved gross margin assumptions. This view is echoed by a broader trend of 21 analysts revising earnings estimates upward. Concurrently, Apple has strategically mitigated geopolitical risk by expanding its U.S. manufacturing and supply chain commitment by $100 billion to a total of $600 billion. This significant investment, which includes new agreements with suppliers Corning and Coherent, has reportedly secured a valuable tariff exemption on imported goods, a development that prompted BofA Securities and Evercore ISI to raise their price targets to $250.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should view the multi-year iPhone product roadmap, including a foldable model in FY26 and a 20th-anniversary edition in FY27, as a significant long-term growth driver that could support higher valuations.
• Factor in the reported tariff exemption, secured via expanded U.S. investment, as a key de-risking event that mitigates a major overhang from trade policy uncertainty.
• The broad-based positive sentiment from multiple analysts, who are raising price targets and earnings estimates, suggests a strengthening institutional conviction that may provide near-term support for the stock.
• Consider monitoring key suppliers like Corning (GLW), Coherent (COHR), and GlobalFoundries (GFS) as they are positioned to directly benefit from Apple's accelerated domestic supply chain investments.