Analyst sets date when Nvidia stock will hit $200

Despite a recent pullback to $135.13, Nvidia's stock shows a technical setup, a bullish cup-and-handle pattern, that an analyst, TradingShot, believes could drive it towards $200 by late September 2025, contingent on maintaining support above the 50-day moving average. This outlook follows strong Q1 2025 earnings ($0.96 EPS vs. $0.93 expected and $44.06B revenue vs. $43.31B expected) but is tempered by lower-than-expected revenue guidance due to U.S. export restrictions to China, though Wall Street remains largely optimistic due to AI-driven growth.

Analysis

Nvidia (NVDA) recently experienced a pullback to $135.13, a nearly 3% decline in the last trading session, yet has demonstrated significant strength with a 24% gain over the past month, largely driven by a robust Q1 2025 earnings report. The company surpassed expectations with an adjusted earnings per share of $0.96, compared to the anticipated $0.93, and revenue of $44.06 billion, exceeding the forecasted $43.31 billion. However, this performance is tempered by a cautious forward-looking statement, as revenue guidance for the next quarter is approximately $8 billion lower than previously expected. This reduction is attributed to U.S. export restrictions on its H20 chips destined for China, which has resulted in a $4.5 billion charge for excess inventory and $2.5 billion in lost sales. Despite these headwinds, Nvidia projects sales around $45 billion for the upcoming quarter, only slightly below analysts' estimates. From a technical perspective, analyst TradingShot has identified a bullish cup-and-handle pattern on NVDA's chart, suggesting a potential medium-term target of $200 by late September 2025, should the pattern complete as anticipated. This outlook is contingent on the stock overcoming resistance at $143.60 and maintaining support from its 50-day and 200-day moving averages; a drop below the 50-day MA could weaken this bullish thesis. Adding a layer of complexity, a bearish divergence on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates slowing momentum, although a similar pattern in late October 2024 preceded a rally. Wall Street sentiment remains largely optimistic, with several firms increasing price targets, citing strong AI-driven growth potential, even amidst concerns regarding the impact of China-related export controls.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should closely monitor Nvidia's price action relative to the $143.60 resistance and its 50-day moving average, as these levels are critical for the validation of the bullish cup-and-handle pattern aiming for a $200 target.
• The lowered revenue guidance due to U.S. export restrictions on chips for China, resulting in an $8 billion expected shortfall, highlights a significant geopolitical risk that warrants careful consideration in assessing Nvidia's near-term growth trajectory and valuation.
• Given the mixed signals of a bullish chart pattern against a bearish RSI divergence and challenging revenue guidance, consider the current pullback as a potential entry point contingent on technical support holding, while remaining prepared for potential consolidation before any significant upward move.