Tutor Perini Stock Soars 64% in 3 Months: Still a Buy Now?

Tutor Perini (TPC) shares have surged 64% in the last three months, driven by consistent contract wins, a record $19.4 billion backlog (up 94% year-over-year), and a focus on higher-margin projects, leading to a 19% increase in revenues and a 77% increase in earnings for 1Q25. As a result, EPS estimates for 2025 and 2026 have increased by 14.4% and 10.8%, respectively, and the company has raised its 2025 EPS guidance to $1.60-$1.95; the stock is currently trading at a discount to industry peers, with analysts anticipating continued strong performance.

Analysis

Tutor Perini Corporation (TPC) has demonstrated significant positive momentum, with its shares surging 64.1% over the past three months, substantially outperforming its industry peers, the broader construction sector, and the S&P 500. This performance is underpinned by robust fundamental improvements: Q1 2025 revenues and earnings rose 19% and 77% year-over-year respectively, attributed to execution on newer, higher-margin projects. A key indicator of future revenue visibility is its record backlog, which reached $19.4 billion as of March 31, 2025, a 94% year-over-year increase, further supported by $2 billion in new awards during Q1 and over $500 million already secured in Q2. Reflecting this strength, EPS estimates for 2025 and 2026 have seen upward revisions of 14.4% (to $1.75) and 10.8% (to $3.09) respectively within the past 60 days, and the company has increased its 2025 EPS guidance to $1.60-$1.95, with expectations for EPS in 2026 and 2027 to more than double the 2025 figure. TPC's strategic focus on selective bidding for projects with favorable terms and limited competition, alongside disciplined capital management—evidenced by a 24% reduction in total debt to $406 million following an early Term Loan B payoff—enhances its financial health. Technically, the stock trading above its 50 and 200-day simple moving averages signals a bullish trend. Despite significant share appreciation, TPC's forward 12-month P/E ratio of 18.17X remains below the industry average of 18.81X, suggesting a potentially favorable valuation given its growth outlook and consistent contract wins in a market with strong demand from well-funded public and healthy commercial clients.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Given Tutor Perini's robust backlog growth, improving profitability from higher-margin projects, and significantly upward-revised EPS guidance, investors should evaluate the stock for potential inclusion in growth-focused portfolios.
• It is prudent to monitor the company's continued success in securing and executing large-scale projects at favorable margins, alongside its progress in further debt reduction and capital allocation strategy, to sustain the current positive outlook.
• Despite the notable 64% share price increase in three months, the stock's current valuation at a discount to the industry average P/E, combined with strong technical signals and positive analyst sentiment, suggests continued upside potential may exist, though the sustainability of market conditions and project execution remains key.