Next, Primark and M&S clothing sales fare better in late autumn

Kantar data for the 12 weeks to Nov. 9 show UK apparel sales improved slightly, with total sales down 1.0% (versus -1.9% prior) as volumes fell 3.8% but average selling prices rose 2.9%; the full‑price mix eased to 66.5%, online sales were up 0.9% and offline fell 2.4%. Among listed names Next grew sales 1.7% with a 1.2 percentage‑point full‑price improvement and market share at 9.5%, Primark sales rose 2.6% with share up 25bps to 7.1%, M&S’s decline narrowed to 3.4% (from 7.4%) while online remained slightly down after cyber disruption and offline fell 4.5%, and Superdry continued to lag with sales down 15.1% and full‑price sales down 12.7%. UBS warned forthcoming results around Black Friday/Christmas will be needed to judge whether spending was simply deferred, highlighting that higher prices are currently offsetting weaker volumes and leaving holiday demand visibility limited.

Analysis

Kantar data for the 12 weeks to 9 November show a modest sequential easing in UK apparel weakness with total sales down 1.0% versus a 1.9% decline in the prior period; sales volumes fell 3.8% while average selling prices rose 2.9%, leaving the full-price mix at 66.5% (down 0.7 percentage points). Online sales grew 0.9% while offline sales fell 2.4%, indicating continued channel divergence and that higher prices are partly offsetting weaker demand. UBS flagged that forthcoming retailer results around Black Friday and Christmas will be needed to determine whether demand has been deferred rather than permanently damaged, leaving holiday-period visibility limited.

Among listed names, Next reported 1.7% sales growth with a 1.2 percentage-point full-price improvement and market share rising to 9.5%, while Primark (ABF) posted 2.6% growth and gained 25 basis points to 7.1% market share, signalling relative resilience. Marks & Spencer narrowed its decline to 3.4% (from 7.4%), with online still down 1.1% as it recovered from earlier cyber disruption and offline down 4.5%. Superdry remains the outlier with sales down 15.1% (improving from 17.1%) and full-price sales falling 12.7%, underscoring ongoing execution or demand issues.

The interplay of rising prices and falling volumes creates a two‑track outcome: retailers gaining market share (Next, Primark) show tactical strength, whereas M&S and especially Superdry face higher operational and demand risk unless full-price mix and volumes recover; monitoring post-Black Friday and Christmas prints is critical to distinguish timing effects from structural weakness.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Consider increasing exposure selectively to Next and Primark (ABF) given sequential sales growth and market-share gains, while sizing positions to risk tolerance and near-term macro/holiday uncertainty
• Require confirmation from post-Black Friday and Christmas trading updates—focus on volume trends and full-price mix stabilization before adding to broader UK apparel longs
• Avoid initiating or add-to positions in M&S and Superdry until there is clear evidence of sustained recovery in full-price sales and offline demand, or consider hedges to protect existing exposure
• Monitor online vs offline sales divergence and pricing elasticity as leading indicators; if ASP gains persist with weakening volumes, be prepared to trim risk if discounting intensifies and margins come under pressure