Corn Showing Slight Losses on Thursday

Corn futures are largely down fractionally today, with cash prices also declining, as USDA reported mixed export sales: old crop sales of 741,226 MT were below expectations but up year-over-year, while new crop sales hit a six-week high at 305,506 MT. This occurs as the International Grains Council (IGC) trimmed its world corn production estimate by 1 MMT and reduced carryout by 2 MMT, suggesting a tighter global supply. Market participants are now keenly awaiting USDA's June Acreage report on Monday, which could further influence price action.

Analysis

Corn futures are trading with minor losses, reflecting a market processing mixed data points ahead of a key government report. The latest USDA Export Sales data presented a dual narrative: old crop sales of 741,226 MT were within trade estimates but marked a low for the marketing year, yet still represented a 36.7% increase over the same week last year. Conversely, new crop sales for 2025/26 were robust at 305,506 MT, a 6-week high and near the top of expectations, signaling strong forward demand. This domestic demand picture is set against a tightening global backdrop, as the International Grains Council (IGC) has reduced its world production estimate by 1 MMT and lowered its global carryout forecast by 2 MMT to 282 MMT. The market's immediate focus, however, is on the USDA's June Acreage report, with traders anticipating a slight reduction in planted area to 95.4 million acres, a figure that carries significant uncertainty given the wide estimate range of 93.8 to 96.8 million.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Monitor the upcoming USDA June Acreage report closely, as a planted area figure below the consensus estimate of 95.4 million acres would likely serve as a bullish catalyst for prices.
• Consider the strength in new crop export sales, which hit a 6-week high, as a positive leading indicator of future demand that may provide price support despite the weaker old crop sales figures.
• Factor in the tightening global supply outlook, evidenced by the IGC's 2 MMT reduction in world carryout estimates, as this provides a supportive fundamental backdrop that could limit downside risk.
• Given the wide range of acreage estimates, investors should anticipate heightened price volatility following the release of the Acreage report and position accordingly.