Live and feeder cattle futures are posting gains, with live cattle up to $1.05 and feeder cattle recovering Thursday's losses by up to $2.60, amid cash trade ranging $230-238. While wholesale boxed beef prices saw minor declines, the market awaits key Cattle on Feed and bi-annual July Cattle Inventory reports, which are expected to show reduced placements and a lower on-feed inventory, reinforcing a tighter supply outlook given current lower slaughter volumes.
Cattle futures markets are exhibiting bullish momentum, with live cattle contracts gaining up to $1.05 and feeder cattle futures recovering from prior losses with gains as high as $2.60. This price action is underpinned by a tight physical supply situation, evidenced by a weekly cattle slaughter running 35,058 head below the same period in 2024. Cash trade remains active, with prices seen between $230 and $238, further supporting the futures rally. The market's primary focus is now on forthcoming USDA data, including the bi-annual July Cattle Inventory and the monthly Cattle on Feed report. Consensus estimates for the latter point towards a continued supply contraction, with June placements expected to be down 2% and the total on-feed inventory on July 1 anticipated to be 0.8% lower year-over-year. While the supply outlook appears constrictive, wholesale boxed beef prices showed a minor retreat, with Choice boxes declining $0.63 and Select boxes down $1.36, indicating a potential near-term ceiling on end-product pricing.
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moderately positive
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