Prediction: Berkshire Hathaway Will Stop Selling Apple Stock in 2026

Berkshire Hathaway has trimmed its Apple stake from 280.0 million to 238.2 million shares as of Sept. 30, leaving a position now worth more than $65 billion—about 20% of its equity portfolio and ~6% of Berkshire’s market cap—while holding $354.3 billion in cash and U.S. Treasuries. Apple reported fiscal Q4 2025 revenue of $102.5 billion, up 8% year-over-year, and guided to 10–12% year-over-year revenue growth for the upcoming holiday quarter, supporting the view that recent trims were risk-management rather than a loss of conviction; a November 2025 CEO succession to Greg Abel could nonetheless alter Berkshire’s capital-deployment and tech-allocation strategy.

Analysis

Market structure: Berkshire’s trimming of AAPL is a portfolio-concentration management move, not a fundamental call on iPhone demand; expect episodic selling pressure sufficient to move AAPL 3–8% intraday if blocks hit lit markets, but not a multi-quarter supply/demand reversal given Apple’s 10–12% holiday guidance. Winners are Apple (AAPL) and large-cap tech (GOOG/GOOGL) if momentum sustains; losers are short-duration suppliers and funds overweighting AAPL that must liquidate into weakness. Cross-asset: risk-on from sustained AAPL strength would modestly tighten IG spreads (-5–15bp) and compress 2s10s slightly; USD moves will be immaterial absent broader tech-led rally; implied vols on AAPL should compress 10–25% if selling stops.

Risk assessment: Tail risks include a) a large block-distribution by Berkshire cascading into algos and knocking AAPL >15% in days, b) China/China-supply shock reducing unit sales 10–20%, and c) regulatory action on App Store/services. Near-term (days–weeks) risk is execution/flow; medium (months) is management/portfolio policy under Greg Abel; long-term (years) is secular iPhone/service revenue mix. Hidden dependency: BRK’s correlation with AAPL amplifies BRK equity volatility and can force behavioral selling by other funds (index/ETF rebalances).

Trade implications: Primary direct play is a core long AAPL position sized 2–3% with downside protection (put spread) and a satellite 1–2% LEAP on GOOG for optionality in tech rotation. Pair trade: long BRK.B (1–2% over 12–24 months) conditional on filings showing AAPL stake stabilizes ≥18% of BRK equity; short small-cap iPhone-component exposure if early signs of demand volatility emerge. Options: buy 3–6 month AAPL put spreads sized to 30–40% of equity exposure to limit a forced-sell drawdown; sell covered calls on BRK.B to monetize rich cash yield expectations.

Contrarian angles: Consensus treats Berkshire selling as bearish for AAPL — risk is that Abel halts sales and reallocates to more tech, creating asymmetric upside for both AAPL and BRK.B (20–30% over 12–24 months). The market may underprice services-led margin expansion in Apple; if holiday growth hits upper guidance (12%+), expect a re-rate in multiples by 2–4 turns. Unintended consequence: heavy BRK selling could create buyback/opportunistic M&A tailwinds if Abel deploys cash into non-public assets, supporting BRK valuation independent of AAPL.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 2–3% long position in AAPL (6–12 month horizon). Size a protective 3–month put spread at ~5–8% OTM equal to 30–40% of position cost; add another 1% on pullbacks >7% from entry. Target +18–25% upside; hard stop-loss at -10% realized.
• Initiate a conditional 1.5% long in BRK.B with a 12–24 month horizon: only deploy full allocation if within 30 days Berkshire’s next 13F/Q4 filing shows AAPL stake ≥18% of BRK equity OR company commentary under Abel signals tech-friendly capital deployment. If signals are absent, defer and re-evaluate at next quarterly filing.
• Allocate 1.5–2% to GOOGL (buy shares or 12–18 month LEAP calls) as a thematic hedge on Berkshire’s tilt toward large-cap tech; target 20–30% return over 12 months and trim at +25% gains.
• Tactical hedge: buy a 6–12 week AAPL put spread sized to 30% of your AAPL long to protect against a forced-block sell scenario (expect up to 5–8% short-term downside if Berkshire reduces to a round 20% target). Monitor intraday block trades and 13F disclosure for execution triggers.