History Says the Nasdaq Will Surge in 2026. 2 Stock-Split Stocks to Buy Before It Does.

The Nasdaq’s more-than three-year bull run looks likely to continue, supported by potential Fed rate cuts, rising corporate profits and AI adoption, and historical data from Carson Group showing bull markets that exceed three years typically keep rallying. A renewed wave of stock splits — often a sign of sustained business strength and followed by above-market post-split returns (Bank of America data shows a ~25% average one-year gain) — is exemplified by Netflix’s 10-for-1 split and Interactive Brokers’ 4-for-1 split: Netflix reported Q3 revenue of $11.5bn (+17% YoY), EPS up 27% (ex-charge), expects Q4 revenue +17% to $11.96bn and EPS +28% to $5.45 and trades at a premium (~35x next-year sales), while Interactive Brokers showed customer accounts +32% to 4.13m, customer equity +40% to $758bn, Q3 revenue $1.6bn (+21%) and EPS $0.59 (+40%), trading at roughly 31x trailing earnings. Together these cases illustrate how strong fundamentals, operational momentum and management confidence via splits are feeding the broader market rally, though valuation differentials (premium for Netflix vs. more modest IBKR multiple) warrant consideration.

Analysis

The Nasdaq's bull market has now exceeded three years and, per Carson Group data cited in the article, bull markets that pass the three-year mark historically continued to rally (average duration eight years, shortest five), with current bullish drivers including potential interest-rate cuts, rising corporate profits and AI adoption. Market sentiment metrics in the piece are moderately positive and the article notes a resurgence in stock splits as a signal of management confidence and sustained business strength.

Netflix completed a 10-for-1 split after delivering 26% YTD performance in 2025 and 862% over the past decade; Q3 revenue was $11.5 billion (+17% YoY) and EPS rose 27% ex a noncash charge, with management guiding Q4 revenue +17% to $11.96 billion and EPS +28% to $5.45. The company expects ad revenue to double in 2025 and the stock trades at roughly 35x next-year sales, while Bank of America data in the article shows companies that split shares average a ~25% one-year gain versus ~12% for the S&P 500.

Interactive Brokers completed a 4-for-1 split after rising 45% in 2025 and 512% over ten years; Q3 metrics show customer brokerage accounts +32% to 4.13m, customer equity +40% to $758bn, daily revenue trades +34%, revenue $1.6bn (+21% YoY) and EPS $0.59 (+40%). The stock trades near 31x trailing earnings, implying a more modest valuation relative to Netflix, and the combination of customer growth and trading volumes underpins near-term earnings momentum but remains sensitive to market activity levels and broader macro support.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Consider a selective overweight in Netflix to capture ad-revenue upside and subscriber momentum post-split, but cap position size and monitor Q4 guidance and ad-revenue growth given a ~35x next-year-sales premium
• Consider initiating or adding to Interactive Brokers for fintech exposure on the view of durable account, asset and trade growth and a more moderate ~31x trailing EPS multiple, preferring purchases on pullbacks
• Use the post-split window to re-evaluate execution versus expectations — take profits or hedge if share-price appreciation outpaces revenue and EPS trajectory, recalling splits historically precede outsized one-year gains
• Monitor macro catalysts cited in the article (Fed rate-cut signals, corporate profit trends and AI adoption); deterioration in these drivers would be the primary near-term risk to both names