Billionaire beef boss says Americans crave so much protein the country is outpacing its own production and turning to imports

JBS executive Wesley Batista highlights a critical imbalance in the U.S. beef market, where record-high demand, driven by protein-heavy diets and potentially GLP-1 drugs, confronts a 50-year low in domestic cattle supply. This dynamic has pushed ground beef prices to a record $6.32/lb, up 13%, and necessitates a projected 16% increase in overall beef imports, despite tariff fluctuations impacting specific origins like Brazil. JBS, as a major domestic producer, remains largely insulated from import tariff effects, underscoring the structural supply challenge.

Analysis

One of the billionaire brothers behind the biggest meat-processing company in the world is worried about satisfying America’s insatiable craving for protein. Wesley Batista, who, with his brother Joesley Batista, controls the $15 billion Brazilian meat-packing behemoth JBS, said the U.S. needs to import more product from abroad to meet demand. “The U.S. is facing the highest beef price in history and so the U.S. needs to import more and more because production is not there to support the demand,” Batista said in remarks reported by the Financial Times. Protein-heavy diets have become so popular that the macronutrient is showing up in everything from packaged food to Starbucks lattes. A study by JBS competitor Cargill also found 60% of consumers said they increased their protein in 2024, up from under half who said the same in 2019. Batista believes the influx of GLP-1 drugs could also be fueling the protein craze. “No one knows exactly what is the impact of these new drugs, Ozempic or Mounjaro . . . but something is happening because protein overall became [a trend],” Batista said, according to the FT. “In the past . . . the doctor said you should not eat too [many] eggs, you should not eat too much protein. Now it’s the other way around.” The cattle conundrum Despite being the world’s No. 1 beef producer, the U.S. has had to turn to runner-up producer Brazil for a lifeline this year as cattle sizes thinned out. Even the 10% “Liberation Day” tariff imposed by the Trump administration in April didn’t stop the flow of Brazilian beef. Imports were up 91% in the first half of the year. To be sure, imports of beef from Brazil started to fall in August after President Donald Trump increased tariffs on the country to a total of 50%, in part because of political disputes. But other countries such as Australia, with only a 10% tariff stand to gain. The USDA said beef imports overall for the second half of the year were predicted to increase as well, bringing the total volume of beef imported up 16% higher than the previous year. Batista, who was previously CEO of JBS and now sits on the board, added JBS was not hit hard from the tariffs because it produces most of its meat for the U.S. market domestically. JBS is the top producer of beef in the U.S. and its shares started trading on the New York Stock Exchange in June. JBS’ American business made up just under a third of its global sales as of its third fiscal quarter ended in August. JBS did not immediately respond to Fortune‘s request for comment. Meanwhile, the price of a pound of ground beef has jumped 13% to a record high of $6.32 in U.S. cities as of the latest available date in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Plummeting cattle supply has not helped. The U.S. had an estimated 28.7 million head of beef cattle as of July, the lowest since data started being collected in 1973. “Of course products are still getting more expensive in some markets, but demand is still very strong, especially in the US,” added Batista. A significant structural imbalance is defining the U.S. beef market, characterized by record-high demand clashing with a multi-decade supply low. JBS executive Wesley Batista highlights that robust consumer appetite, driven by protein-centric diets and potentially the rise of GLP-1 drugs, is outstripping domestic production. This demand is quantified by a Cargill study showing 60% of consumers increased protein intake in 2024. On the supply side, the U.S. beef cattle herd has fallen to 28.7 million head, its lowest level since 1973. This supply-demand gap has propelled ground beef prices up 13% to a record $6.32 per pound and necessitates a projected 16% year-over-year increase in total beef imports, according to the USDA. Trade dynamics are volatile; despite an initial 91% surge in Brazilian beef imports in H1, a subsequent tariff hike to 50% has curtailed this flow, potentially redirecting import demand to other nations like Australia. JBS, as the top beef producer within the U.S., is uniquely positioned, as its domestic production insulates it from these import tariffs, allowing it to capitalize on high domestic prices. With U.S. operations accounting for nearly a third of its global sales, JBS appears well-hedged against the tariff volatility impacting its foreign-based competitors.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should assess protein producers based on their domestic production footprint, as companies like JBS with significant U.S. operations are better positioned to benefit from record-high beef prices while being insulated from import tariff volatility.
• The 13% surge in beef prices represents a material inflationary pressure; therefore, positions in consumer-facing industries like restaurants and grocers should be monitored for potential margin compression or signs of demand destruction.
• The U.S. market's growing reliance on imports presents a tactical opportunity for producers in low-tariff countries, but also highlights supply chain risk, warranting close attention to trade policy shifts which can rapidly alter market access and profitability.
• The emerging, though unquantified, link between GLP-1 drug usage and increased protein demand is a key long-term trend to monitor, as it could provide a sustained tailwind for the entire protein sector.