How much a 'classic' Thanksgiving dinner will cost you—it's cheaper than last year

The American Farm Bureau Federation's annual survey finds the cost of a "classic" Thanksgiving dinner for 10 has fallen for a third straight year to $55.18, down 5% from 2024 and well below the $64.05 peak in 2022 but still above the 2020 nominal level (roughly unchanged versus 2020 when adjusted for inflation); prices vary regionally (West $61.75, South $50.01). The largest single item is the 16‑lb turkey at an average $21.50 (nearly half the meal), yet retail turkey prices have been held down by steep grocer promotions—despite a roughly 75% rise in wholesale turkey costs from avian flu and higher production costs—illustrated by loss‑leader pricing such as Walmart's $0.98/lb. Side‑dish trends are mixed: wheat‑based items and stuffing are cheaper year‑over‑year while fresh vegetables and sweet potatoes have risen due to weather and regional supply disruptions, signaling uneven cost pressures across categories.

Analysis

The American Farm Bureau Federation's annual survey, conducted in the first week of November across all 50 states, shows the cost of a "classic" Thanksgiving dinner for 10 at $55.18, down 5% from 2024's $58.08 and well below the 2022 peak of $64.05, while remaining nominally above the 2020 level of $46.90 (roughly parity with 2020 when adjusted for inflation); regional variation is meaningful, with the West at $61.75 and the South at $50.01. Turkey remains the single largest line item at an average $21.50 (nearly half the meal), yet Purdue and industry reporting note a disconnect between wholesale and retail: wholesale turkey costs are up roughly 75% year-over-year due to avian flu and higher production costs, while retailers are promoting whole birds heavily as loss leaders. Walmart's advertised $0.98/lb example illustrates steep promotional pricing that can suppress retail turkey inflation and drive store traffic, which supports grocery footfall and potential incremental higher-margin item sales even as grocer margins face pressure. Side-item trends are mixed: wheat-based products and stuffing are cheaper, while fresh vegetables and sweet potatoes rose sharply because of weather and regional supply disruptions, creating uneven input-cost risk that could influence near-term CPI food components and retailer pricing/promotion strategies.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Consider modestly overweighting large, scale-driven grocers such as WMT that can absorb input-cost shocks and use loss-leader promotions to drive traffic, while monitoring their margin commentary
• Monitor wholesale turkey price trajectory and avian flu supply updates as a near-term catalyst for retail price pass-through that would pressure grocer margins and food inflation measures
• Watch regional produce supply reports and CPI food categories for signs that vegetable and sweet potato cost pressures are broadening, which would favor retailers with integrated supply chains and private-label exposure
• If promotional intensity wanes while wholesale costs remain elevated, be prepared to reduce exposure to smaller, regional grocers lacking pricing power or to hedge through select consumer staples producers less exposed to volatile fresh-produce inputs