Wheat futures are trading higher, with Chicago SRW up 8 to 9 cents, Kansas City HRW up 7 to 8 cents, and Minneapolis spring wheat up 10 to 11 cents, driven by forecasts of limited precipitation in the Southern Plains. Export sales data is expected to show net reductions to sales between -200,000 MT to 100,000 MT. Argentina extended its wheat export tax reduction to 9.5% until March 2026, while SovEcon raised its 2025 Russian wheat crop estimate to 81 MMT, slightly below the previous year's figure.
The wheat market is experiencing upward price momentum at midday, with Chicago SRW futures increasing by 8 to 9 cents, Kansas City HRW contracts rising by 7 to 8 cents, and Minneapolis spring wheat futures showing the largest gains of 10 to 11 cents. This strength is partly attributed to weather forecasts indicating limited precipitation for much of the western Southern Plains, a key growing region, although some SRW areas anticipate a wetter pattern. Upcoming Export Sales data for 2024/25 wheat is anticipated to range from net reductions of 200,000 metric tons (MT) to net sales of 100,000 MT, while new crop sales are projected between 300,000 and 700,000 MT, suggesting some uncertainty in near-term export demand. Internationally, Argentina has extended its wheat export tax reduction from 12% to 9.5% until March 31, 2026, a move potentially increasing its export competitiveness. Conversely, SovEcon has revised its 2025 Russian wheat crop estimate upwards by 1.3 MMT to 81 MMT, though this figure remains below the previous year's 82.6 MMT, indicating a slightly tighter supply from a major exporter compared to the prior year. Specific futures contracts reflect this bullish sentiment, with Jul 25 CBOT Wheat at $5.54 1/4 (up 8 1/4 cents) and Jul 25 MGEX Wheat at $6.08 1/2 (up 10 3/4 cents).
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Neutral
Sentiment Score
0.20
