Wholesale used-vehicle prices show minor decline in September

Wholesale used-vehicle prices, as measured by the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, experienced a slight 0.2% month-over-month decline in September but remained 2% higher year-over-year, demonstrating market resilience. Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) significantly outperformed, with wholesale values rising 6.4% year-over-year, leading market segments. While retail used-vehicle sales decreased, new-vehicle sales maintained strong momentum at a 16.4 million SAAR, though declining consumer confidence and purchase plans indicate broader economic concerns are tempering overall market growth.

Analysis

The wholesale used-vehicle market showed resilience in September 2025, with the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) declining a modest 0.2% month-over-month but remaining 2% higher year-over-year. This stability was significantly bolstered by Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs), which saw wholesale values surge 6.4% year-over-year, vastly outperforming non-electric vehicles' 1% annual increase. Strong EV demand continues to underpin market strength despite the end of federal EV tax incentives.

Retail used-vehicle sales experienced a 3.9% month-over-month decline and were down 2% year-over-year, with days' supply increasing to 46, indicating softening retail demand and inventory build-up. Conversely, new-vehicle sales maintained strong momentum at a 16.4 million seasonally adjusted annual rate, up 6.7% from last year, partly driven by a nearly 12% year-over-year rise in fleet deliveries. Average used listing prices, however, still increased 1.5% over four weeks.

Broader economic concerns are tempering overall market growth, evidenced by a decline in consumer confidence, with the Conference Board Index falling 3.6 points to 94.2 and the University of Michigan index decreasing 5.3% to 55.1. This reduced confidence translated into a drop in plans to purchase vehicles over the next six months, signaling heightened economic uncertainty. While gas prices eased slightly, this relief appears insufficient to offset the broader sentiment shift.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should closely monitor the sustained outperformance of Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) in wholesale values, considering potential investment opportunities in companies exposed to this segment.
• Evaluate auto retailers and manufacturers for their exposure to rising used-vehicle days' supply and softening retail demand, while acknowledging strong new-vehicle sales partly driven by fleet purchases.
• Pay close attention to future consumer confidence and vehicle purchase intention data, as declining sentiment and economic uncertainty pose a significant headwind for broader auto market growth.