Notable Tuesday Option Activity: CMTG, HURN, HUM

Huron Consulting (HURN) saw 1,766 option contracts trade (~176,600 underlying shares), equal to ~79.3% of its one‑month average daily volume, driven primarily by 1,500 contracts in the $145 put expiring March 20, 2026 (~150,000 shares). Humana (HUM) recorded 18,566 option contracts (~1.9M underlying shares), roughly 74.6% of its one‑month average, led by 1,607 contracts in the $200 call expiring February 13, 2026 (~160,700 shares). The activity indicates concentrated directional positioning in both names and represents sizable share‑equivalent flows relative to typical daily turnover.

Analysis

Market structure: The concentrated activity (HURN 1,500 Mar‑20‑2026 puts ≈150k shares ≈79% of ADV; HUM 1,607 Feb‑13‑2026 calls ≈160.7k shares ≈75% of ADV) signals institutional directional flows or large hedges that will force market‑maker delta hedging into the underlying, creating intra‑day to multi‑week supply/demand imbalances. Winners: options sellers/structurers and counterparties that can monetize elevated IV; losers: small‑cap liquidity providers in HURN and passive funds forced to trade through widened spreads. Cross‑asset: expect muted direct bond/FX moves, but short‑term equity volatility can feed higher corporate credit spreads for smaller issuers and lift VIX/sector vols by 10–30% on sustained flow.

Risk assessment: Key tail risks include misclassification of trade (buyer vs seller), a corporate catalyst (earnings, M&A) within 30–90 days, or macro shock that turns protective puts into systemic bid for hedges; HURN has outsized operational exposure to cyclical consulting demand whereas HUM faces policy/regulatory tail risk in healthcare. Immediate (days): gamma/flow‑driven volatility; short (weeks–months): option expiries and earnings; long (quarters): fundamental performance will reassert. Hidden dependency: volume alone doesn’t reveal sign—confirm with skew/IV change and trade prints before committing.

Trade implications: Direct: for HUM, consider a tactical bullish position sized 1–2% NAV via Feb‑2026 $200/$240 call spread (max loss = premium) or 1.5% outright long equity if price confirms >$200 on 3‑day, >1.5x ADV. For HURN, prefer a defensive stance: buy Mar‑2026 $145/$125 put spread (risk‑defined) sized 0.5–1% NAV or establish a 1% short equity position if HURN breaks down >8% on confirmed heavy volume. Pair: long HUM (1–1.5%) / short HURN (0.75–1%) for relative strength vs cyclical risk, rebalance at 90 days or 10% ratio move.

Contrarian angles: The market may be misreading block flow as pure directional sentiment—many large single‑strike trades are structured hedges or part of collars; if IV doesn’t rise >20% after these prints, the flow was likely sell‑side and the move is overdone. Historical analog: concentrated single‑strike interest has preceded both M&A rumors and short squeezes; therefore cap exposures, prefer defined‑risk options, and set objective add/cut triggers (add only if trade confirms with >1.5x ADV and IV expansion >15%).

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a tactical bullish position in HUM: allocate 1–2% NAV to Feb‑13‑2026 $200/$240 call spreads (risk = premium); add only if HUM trades >$200 for 3 consecutive sessions with volume >1.5x ADV; target 2x return within 3–6 months, cut at 12% premium loss or if IV compresses >25% without price follow‑through.
• Implement a defensive/short position in HURN: allocate 0.5–1% NAV to Mar‑20‑2026 $145/$125 put spreads (defined risk) or short 1% equity exposure if HURN gaps down >8% on confirmed heavy flow; trim if HURN recovers >15% from entry or open interest/IV fall >20%.
• Run a relative‑value pair: long HUM equity 1–1.5% vs short HURN 0.75–1% to capture sector/ cyclical divergence; rebalance or close after 90 days or if the long/short P&L diverges by 10% (absolute).