Rams take quarterback Ty Simpson at No. 13

This is less about one player and more about a franchise signaling that the post-Stafford transition window may be far shorter than the market had priced. The second-order effect is on organizational optionality: by moving early on a premium quarterback, the Rams preserve bargaining power on Stafford’s exit and reduce the probability of being forced into an expensive veteran bridge later. In NFL terms, that usually compresses future volatility in the most important roster spot, which is a material positive for the franchise’s competitive floor over the next 2-4 seasons.

The market inefficiency is likely in timing, not in talent. A top-half first-round QB on a McVay team creates an unusually favorable development environment, but the payoff is delayed and path-dependent; if Stafford stays healthy and productive for another year, the valuation of this pick improves, while any abrupt decline would raise pressure on Simpson sooner than expected. The main downside is that early QB selection can become a sunk-cost overhang if the staff feels compelled to accelerate the handoff before he is ready, which would increase the odds of a bridge-year disappointment rather than smooth succession.

From a contrarian lens, the consensus may be overestimating the immediacy of the positive signal and underestimating execution risk. Premium quarterback picks often look smartest in draft-week headlines and least certain 12 months later; the real edge comes if the organization can avoid forcing the timeline. The more important tell is not the pick itself, but whether the Rams keep flexibility in veteran QB staffing and offensive design, which will determine whether this becomes a durable advantage or merely an expensive insurance policy.