WMT Gears Up for Q3 Earnings Release: Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock Now?

Walmart is set to report fiscal Q3 results on Nov. 20 with Zacks' consensus calling for $177.1 billion in revenue (up 4.5% YoY) and $0.61 EPS (up 5.2% YoY); Zacks assigns the stock a Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of +1.15%, tipping its model toward an earnings beat. The company’s upside drivers are steady in‑store traffic, a 25% jump in global e‑commerce in Q2, and faster‑growing, higher‑margin streams—advertising (+46%) and membership (+15%)—alongside international strength in China, Walmex and Flipkart. Offsetting risks include tariff‑driven inventory cost inflation, elevated self‑insured liability and workers’ comp claims, and elasticity in some general‑merchandise categories. Walmart’s shares have outperformed peers over the past year (+18.9%) but trade at a premium forward P/E of 36.0 versus the industry, leaving less room for error if growth softens.

Analysis

Walmart is due to report fiscal Q3 results on Nov. 20 with the Zacks consensus calling for $177.1 billion in revenue (up 4.5% year-over-year) and $0.61 EPS (up 5.2% YoY); Zacks assigns WMT a Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of +1.15%, and its model therefore tilts toward an earnings beat. The consensus EPS increased by $0.01 in the last seven days and the company has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 2.8% after a -6.9% miss in the most recent quarter.

Key fundamental drivers cited for Q3 include continued in-store traffic and promotional rollbacks, a 25% jump in global e-commerce in Q2 driven by store-fulfilled delivery and marketplace growth, and faster-growing higher-margin streams—advertising (+46%) and membership income (+15%)—alongside international strength in China, Walmex and Flipkart. Higher-income household spending and unit growth from rollbacks are noted as stabilizing top-line trends.

Near-term headwinds are explicit: tariff-driven cost increases flowing through inventory, elasticity in certain general merchandise categories, and elevated self-insured liability and workers’ compensation costs carried from the first half. WMT shares have outperformed peers over the past year (+18.9%); however the forward 12-month P/E of 36.02 exceeds the industry average of 32.78, leaving less room for error if revenue or margin momentum softens.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Maintain a core hold going into the print given the positive Earnings ESP and defensive omnichannel momentum, but avoid adding large new positions at current premium valuation
• Size exposure or use protective hedges (e.g., collars or puts) ahead of the Nov. 20 results to limit downside from an unexpected miss or weak guidance on tariffs and claims costs
• Reassess and consider adding incrementally on a confirmed beat with sustained strength in advertising/membership and e‑commerce growth, or trim/rotate into cheaper retail peers if Walmart flags worsening tariff pass-through or rising claims expenses