‘AI adoption is accelerating, but confidence is collapsing’: The more workers use AI, the less they trust it. Baby boomers show a 35% drop

ManpowerGroup’s 2026 Global Talent Barometer, based on interviews with nearly 14,000 workers across 19 countries, finds AI usage rose 13% in 2025 while worker confidence fell 18% overall (35% among baby boomers, 25% among Gen X). The report highlights a training shortfall—56% of workers received no recent skills development—coinciding with PwC findings that only 10–12% of companies report revenue or cost benefits from AI and 56% report no gains, while 63% report burnout and 64% are staying in jobs out of automation fear. Firms such as IBM and Accenture are launching internal AI academies, but the gap between adoption and upskilling poses a material risk to realizing productivity gains and could weigh on corporate returns if not addressed.

Analysis

Market structure: Shortage of trained AI adopters creates immediate winners in IT services, consulting and workforce solutions—Accenture (ACN) and IBM are positioned to capture implementation and upskilling dollars, while staffing firms like ManpowerGroup (MAN) can price temporary trainer/contract labor at a premium. Pure-play AI software vendors that depend on customer-side integration risk elongated sales cycles and slower SaaS monetization; expect implementation services to take 5–15% share from license budgets over 12–24 months. Cross-asset: weaker near-term productivity upside raises recession-risk skew; expect modest safe-haven flows that could compress 10y real yields by 10–30bps in risk-off windows and keep idiosyncratic IV elevated across AI names.

Risk assessment: Tail risks include regulatory limits on workplace AI (harsh compliance costs), union-driven training mandates, or headline layoffs that force rapid de-risking—each could shave 10–25% off affected vendors’ forward margins. Immediate (days-weeks) effects are sentiment-driven; short-term (2–6 months) will show in guidance as companies report higher services/training line items; long-term (2–5 years) still supports productivity gains if retraining penetration exceeds 40% of AI adopters. Hidden dependencies: cloud capacity, consulting supply, and HR policy; catalysts include Q2/Q3 earnings commentary quantifying upskilling spend >5% of IT budgets.

Trade implications: Favor IT services and staffing: tactically overweight ACN (6–12 month time horizon) and IBM for durable services revenue and recurring training programs; small overweight MAN to catch staffing tailwinds. Reduce exposure to high-multiple pure-play AI/SaaS by 5–10% and consider a modest short of broad AI/robotics ETF to play elongated ROI. Options: use 6–12 month call spreads on ACN/IBM to capture re-rating while capping premium; buy short-dated puts on AI ETF for downside protection.

Contrarian angles: The market underestimates pricing power of upskilling—ERP/CRM historical parallels produced multi-year consulting tails and 10–20% margin expansion for integrators. The sell-off in implementation-dependent software is likely overdone if consultancies can monetize transitions; unintended consequence: near-term margin headwinds for software vendors could create buying opportunities in 3–9 months when retraining programs become visible in spend data.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 2.5–3% long position in ACN equity using a 6–9 month call spread: buy 1x ATM call, sell 1x 25–30% OTM call—target 18–25% upside, stop-loss at 10% absolute decline; rationale: capture implementation/upskilling revenue as corporates reallocate IT budgets over next 2–4 quarters.
• Establish a 2% long position in IBM via a 9–12 month call spread (buy ATM call, sell 1x 20–30% OTM) to play its internal AI academies and services backlog; take profits if trade returns 20–30% or if FY guidance raises services growth >3ppt.
• Initiate a 1–1.5% long position in MAN (ManpowerGroup) equities to capture demand for trainers/contract staff; trim to half if quarterly staffing revenues fail to grow >5% YoY or trim fully if margin compression exceeds 200bps next quarter.
• Reduce exposure to high-multiple AI/SaaS names by 5–10% of portfolio weight; establish a 1% notional short (or buy 3-month ATM puts) on IRBO (iShares Robotics & AI ETF) as a hedge against elongated ROI and re-rating risk over 3 months.
• Monitor specific catalysts over next 60 days: if ≥10 S&P/large-cap tech firms disclose explicit upskilling budgets ≥5% of IT spend, add incremental 1–2% to ACN/IBM positions; if fewer than 3 firms disclose such budgets, cut ACN/IBM exposure by 50% within 7 trading days.