Analysts Estimate Kohl's (KSS) to Report a Decline in Earnings: What to Look Out for

Kohl's (KSS) is forecast to report a substantial year-over-year earnings decline of 44.1% to $0.33 per share on 6.9% lower revenues of $3.48 billion for the quarter ending July 2025, with results due August 27. Despite recent slight upward EPS estimate revisions, the company's negative Earnings ESP of -20.17% and Zacks Rank #3 indicate it is not a strong candidate to beat consensus, suggesting potential downside risk to the stock if actual results align with or fall below these bearish expectations.

Analysis

Kohl's Corporation (KSS) is approaching its Q2 2025 earnings report with a decidedly negative market outlook, as consensus estimates project a significant deterioration in fundamentals. Analysts anticipate a 44.1% year-over-year decline in quarterly earnings to $0.33 per share, coupled with a 6.9% revenue contraction to $3.48 billion. While the consensus EPS estimate has been revised upward by 2.91% over the past 30 days, more recent sentiment appears to have soured. This is evidenced by a negative Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) of -20.17%, which indicates that the most recent analyst estimates are more bearish than the broader consensus. This negative ESP, combined with a neutral Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), makes it statistically difficult to predict an earnings beat. This contrasts with the company's recent history, where it has surpassed EPS estimates in three of the last four quarters, including a notable +40.91% surprise in the prior quarter. The current data presents a conflicting picture: a history of positive surprises versus deteriorating forward-looking indicators, setting up a high-stakes earnings release on August 27.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Given the projected 44.1% earnings decline and a negative Earnings ESP of -20.17%, investors should exercise caution, as the data suggests a low probability of a significant positive earnings surprise.
• Focus on management's forward-looking guidance on the earnings call, as it will be more influential for the stock's medium-term trajectory than the headline numbers, especially in light of the weak retail environment implied by the forecasts.
• Consider hedging existing long positions or delaying new entries until after the report, as the combination of a neutral stock rank and strongly negative surprise prediction presents an unfavorable risk-reward profile heading into the announcement.