Sobi Q4 and FY 2025 report: Closing the year with significant growth and strategic progress

Sobi reported Q4 revenue of SEK 7,821m (+5% reported, +16% CER) and FY2025 revenue of SEK 28,238m (+8% reported, +15% CER), driven by 25% CER haematology growth with strong Altuvoct (SEK 1,023m) and Doptelet (SEK 1,508m) sales; immunology was broadly flat at CER with mixed product contributions. Adjusted EBITA margin improved to 41% in Q4 (40% FY) excluding items affecting comparability, EBITA was SEK 3,075m, EPS before dilution SEK 5.39 and operating cash flow SEK 2,981m. The board proposes no dividend for 2025 and 2026 guidance forecasts low double-digit CER revenue growth and an adjusted EBITA margin in the mid-30s, supporting continued operational leverage but dampening near-term cash returns.

Analysis

Market structure: Sobi (STO:SOBI) is the clear beneficiary of accelerating haematology sales (Altuvoct +Doptelet) and a 37% CER strategic-portfolio expansion, concentrating revenue upside in a few high-margin branded products; competitors in generic/commodity segments and royalty-dependent peers (with single-product risk) are losers. Pricing power should strengthen for Sobi in rare-disease niches where launches are differentiated, implying sustainable adjusted EBITA margins above typical biotech peers—credit spreads for Sobi-rated paper should tighten and equity implied volatility may compress if guidance holds.

Risk assessment: Tail risks include regulatory setbacks for Altuvoct/Gamifant, sudden loss of Beyfortus royalties, or an adverse FX swing versus SEK; a 10-20% adverse revenue hit from one failed product is plausible (low-probability, high-impact). Immediate risks (days) are re-pricing around the conference call; short-term (weeks) hinge on guidance interpretation; long-term (12–24 months) depend on successful commercialization and M&A redeployment of cash if dividends remain suspended.

Trade implications: Direct long SOBI exposure is warranted but size to be calibrated—volatility likely compresses after confirmation of low double-digit revenue growth in 2026; prefer structured option exposure (6–12 month call spreads) to capture upside while capping premium. Consider long SOBI versus short broad biotech ETF (IBB) for stock-specific alpha; fixed-income players should watch Sobi bond spreads for tightening versus Nordic IG/HY indices.

Contrarian angles: Consensus may underprice margin durability—management could reallocate no-dividend cash to buybacks or tuck-in M&A, creating a re-rating catalyst. Conversely, guidance to mid-30s EBITA margin (from 40% adjusted) could be read as near-term margin compression; if market overreacts >10% downside, that is a tactical buying opportunity given product concentration and 2026 low-double-digit revenue guide.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 2–3% long position in STO:SOBI within 5 trading days, target 12-month return of 25–35%, set a hard stop-loss at -12% and trim to half if shares rally >30% from entry.
• Buy a 6–12 month call spread on STO:SOBI (buy ATM, sell strike +20%) sized to 0.5–1% of portfolio to capture upside while limiting premium; if spread >50% ITM, roll to longer-dated LEAP (12–24 months).
• Implement a relative-value pair: long 2% STO:SOBI, short 2% IBB (iShares Nasdaq Biotech ETF) to isolate Sobi-specific execution vs. broad biotech risk for 3–6 months; rebalance if dispersion narrows <3%.
• Reduce dividend-focused Nordic healthcare exposure by 1–2% and reallocate to Sobi-like growth names; monitor conference call and FY2026 quarterly releases—if management signals buybacks or guidance cut >200 bps vs. mid-30s EBITA, exit long positions within 30 days.