Iran war enters dangerous phase as regime shows resilience despite pressure

Event: Iran conflict has entered a dangerous phase and could become a long, grinding war, according to Professor Mehran Kamrava. The regime shows resilience despite internal pressure, lowering the likelihood of rapid de-escalation and implying higher risk premia for regional assets, potential upward pressure on oil risk premia, and increased safe-haven flows.

Analysis

Event: Iran conflict has entered a dangerous phase and could become a long, grinding war, according to Professor Mehran Kamrava. The regime shows resilience despite internal pressure, lowering the likelihood of rapid de-escalation and implying higher risk premia for regional assets, potential upward pressure on oil risk premia, and increased safe-haven flows.