Wheat futures saw gains across the board Thursday, led by Minneapolis spring wheat which rose 12 to 14 cents; Chicago SRW and Kansas City HRW also increased. The USDA's Export Sales data release is delayed to Friday, with traders anticipating net reductions of 200,000 MT to sales of 100,000 MT for 2024/25 and new crop sales between 300,000 to 800,000 MT. SovEcon raised its Russian wheat export forecast for 2025/26 by 1.1 MMT to 40.8 MMT, while ASAP Agri projects Ukraine's 2025/26 exports at 15 MMT, down from 16.2 MMT in 2024/25.
The wheat market exhibited strength on Thursday, evidenced by gains across key futures contracts; notably, July Minneapolis spring wheat (MGEX) futures surged 12 1/4 cents to close at $6.15 1/2, while July Chicago SRW futures rose 3 3/4 cents to $5.34, and July Kansas City HRW contracts gained 6 1/2 cents to finish at $5.31 3/4. This positive price action precedes the release of Export Sales data, delayed to Friday, where market participants anticipate net reductions of 200,000 MT to sales of 100,000 MT for the 2024/25 crop year, alongside new crop sales estimates ranging from 300,000 to 800,000 MT. International supply outlooks present a mixed picture: SovEcon increased its Russian wheat export forecast for 2025/26 by 1.1 MMT to 40.8 MMT, whereas ASAP Agri projects a decline in Ukrainian exports for the same period to 15 MMT, down from 16.2 MMT in 2024/25. Further influencing market sentiment is a legal development involving a federal trade court ruling President Trump's liberation day tariffs illegal, which has subsequently received a temporary stay from an appeals court, maintaining a degree of uncertainty in trade policy.
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