American Express Sees 9% Holiday Spending Jump As Premium Customers Drive Growth

American Express CEO Stephen Squeri said at a Goldman Sachs conference that U.S. retail consumer spending on AmEx’s network rose 9% from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday (platinum cardholders +13%), outpacing Adobe Analytics’ 7.7% online Cyber Week gain and signaling early Q4 trends consistent with the company’s strong earlier results. The data eased fears of a weak holiday season after the U.S. government shutdown and helped lift AmEx shares about 2.5% in afternoon trading (roughly +26% YTD), outperforming Visa, Mastercard and the broader market. Backed by wealthy cardholders and an October raise to the low end of 2025 profit and revenue guidance after a Q3 beat, AmEx appears well positioned to capture higher holiday spending and attendant revenue/margin upside.

Analysis

American Express CEO Stephen Squeri told a Goldman Sachs conference that U.S. retail consumer spending on AmEx’s network rose 9% from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday, with platinum cardholders increasing spending 13%, outpacing Adobe Analytics’ 7.7% online Cyber Week gain. The print coincided with a 2.5% intraday share rise and a roughly 26% year-to-date gain for AXP, outstripping Visa and Mastercard, indicating market recognition of AmEx’s premium customer mix.

AmEx raised the low end of its 2025 profit and revenue guidance in October after beating third-quarter expectations, and Squeri said early fourth-quarter trends remain consistent with the stronger results seen earlier in the year. The combination of guidance upside, affluent cardholder resilience on travel and big-ticket purchases, and holiday spending strength materially reduces near-term downside risk from the recent government shutdown headlines.

Key risks are concentration of growth among high-income segments—making results sensitive to luxury and travel cycles—and the potential for broader consumer weakness to show up in non-premium cohorts or in rivals’ networks. Market sentiment on the news is moderately positive, but investors should monitor subsequent Adobe/third-party spending reads and any company updates on transaction volume, yield and margin dynamics for confirmation.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Consider a modest overweight to AXP versus broad payments peers given the 9% holiday spending beat, October guidance lift and affluent customer resilience, but size positions conservatively due to concentration risk
• Monitor upcoming Adobe and other real-time spending reports and AmEx’s early-Q4 commentary as gating indicators; trim exposure if network growth slows below peer benchmarks or if guidance is revised down
• Favor relative exposure to AXP over V and MA for alpha capture only if confidence in continued premium-card spending persists, otherwise use limited position sizing to manage idiosyncratic risk
• Set alerts for monthly transaction trends and any macro headlines (e.g., renewed government uncertainty) that could quickly change consumer behavior and prompt rebalancing