XP Inc.A (XP) to Report Q2 Results: Wall Street Expects Earnings Growth

XP Inc. (XP) is anticipated to report Q2 2025 earnings of $0.43 per share, representing a 10.3% year-over-year increase, with revenues projected at $834.73 million, up 3.1%. The consensus EPS estimate has seen a substantial 17.14% upward revision over the last 30 days. Coupled with a positive Zacks Earnings ESP of +1.18% and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), XP Inc. is strongly positioned to exceed consensus EPS estimates, indicating a high probability of an earnings beat.

Analysis

XP Inc. (XP) is positioned for a potential earnings beat in its upcoming Q2 2025 report, according to several key quantitative indicators. Wall Street consensus anticipates year-over-year growth, with earnings projected at $0.43 per share (+10.3%) and revenues at $834.73 million (+3.1%). The most significant factor is the strong positive revision momentum; the consensus EPS estimate has been revised upward by a substantial 17.14% over the last 30 days, signaling increased bullishness among covering analysts. This sentiment is further quantified by a positive Zacks Earnings ESP of +1.18% combined with a Zacks Rank of #1 (Strong Buy), a combination that historically predicts a positive earnings surprise with high probability. While these leading indicators are compelling, the company's recent surprise history presents a note of caution, as XP has surpassed consensus EPS estimates only once in the last four quarters. The outlook for XP contrasts sharply with industry peer HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital (HASI), which faces expectations of declining revenue and earnings, a negative ESP, and a Zacks Rank of #4 (Sell), thereby highlighting the relative fundamental strength indicated for XP.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Given the strong quantitative signals, including a 17.14% upward EPS estimate revision and a Zacks #1 Rank, investors could consider a bullish position ahead of the report, as the probability of an earnings beat is high.
• Investors should note XP's mixed surprise history, with only one beat in the last four quarters, and therefore monitor management's forward guidance on the earnings call as the key determinant for the stock's sustained performance.
• Beyond the headline numbers, the sustainability of any post-earnings stock move will depend on the business conditions discussed by management, making their commentary on growth drivers and operational outlook a critical factor to analyze.