French President Emmanuel Macron is facing acute political instability following Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu's resignation after only 27 days, marking the third such failure to establish a stable minority government amidst deep parliamentary divisions. This ongoing political deadlock leaves France's 2026 budget in limbo and poses a significant risk to managing the 2024 budget deficit, currently projected at 5.8% of GDP. Macron's limited options, including appointing a new prime minister potentially from a rival party or calling fresh elections, each carry substantial economic implications, with the former risking reversals of pro-growth reforms and increased fiscal slippage, and the latter potentially empowering the far-right National Rally.
French President Emmanuel Macron is confronting another massive political headache following the shock resignation of his Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu — after just 27 days in office. The former defense minister and longtime ally resigned on Monday before he'd even laid out his fledgling government's plans, saying he was unable to lead the center-right minority government after talks with rival parties signalled that they were unwilling to compromise over their respective budget and policy demands. "Each political party is behaving as if they have their own majority in parliament," Lecornu said, and the "conditions were not fulfilled" to stay in office, according to comments translated by France 24. The crisis France finds itself in is largely of Macron's making, with the president confidently dissolving parliament last year in order to bring "clarity" to France's divided National Assembly. The inconclusive elections that followed brought anything but, with both the right and left winning consecutive rounds of voting, leading to a power struggle and political deadlock that has continued ever since. Macron, unwilling to cede government leadership to either side, instead appointed loyalists to lead minority governments but these have proven vulnerable to no-confidence motions from rival parties. Lecornu's short-lived government was the third to have failed after the ill-fated administrations of Michel Barnier and Francois Bayrou. What they have in common is that they've all struggled to reach agreements with other parties over the state budget, and particularly over the spending cuts and tax rises seen as necessary to rein in France's budget deficit of 5.8% of its gross domestic product in 2024. In a surprise twist on Monday evening, Macron gave Lecornu another 48 hours for "final discussions" with rival parties to try to break the impasse. Lecornu wrote on X that he will report to the president on Wednesday evening on any potential breakthrough "so that he can draw all the necessary conclusions." What comes next? Macron now faces the unenviable task of deciding what to do next with no option likely to be attractive to the beleaguered president, who has repeatedly said he would not resign, a move that would trigger a new presidential election that's currently not due to take place until 2027. He could choose another prime minister — France's sixth in less than two years — but choosing one not from his own political stable will be an uncomfortable and unedifying prospect for Macron, who has repeatedly picked loyalists to lead government in the last year. Or he can dissolve parliament and hold new parliamentary elections. That option won't appeal either as Marine Le Pen's anti-immigration National Rally party is currently leading voter polls, seen with around 32% of the vote compared to the 25% of the vote being held by left-wing alliance, the New Popular Front. Macron is seen as unlikely to choose to resign, analysts say. "It's too dangerous for him to do the right thing and he's unwilling, of course, to step down from power," Douglas Yates, professor of Political Science at INSEAD, told CNBC on Monday. "The one thing I can say with security today is that Macron is not going to announce his own resignation and so it would seem that the easiest thing to do would be to name another prime minister, which he does like I change shirts, and if the new PM doesn't last a long time, he could name another one. And that would be to play his institutional advantage." Yates did not believe Macron would call fresh elections "because the last time he did that it was so catastrophic" and any new polls would again reflect the polarized nature of politics in France, with a chasm between far left and far right voters. "People would abandon his party and vote with their hearts, either left or right," Yates added. Left, or right? There is speculation that Macron could take the plunge and nominate a PM who is not an ally from his own centrist political backyard, with a pick from the center-left Socialist Party a possibility. There is little chance Macron would opt for a candidate from either the far-left France Unbowed party or far-right National Rally, with both parties on Monday calling for Macron's dismissal. "So far he's chosen the wrong person, and by choosing people from the center, he's alienated the left and the right," Yates said. "I think he would do better by throwing some fresh meat to the center-left who could help him constitute a government and possibly avoid a motion of censure, so I think a Socialist would probably be the most acceptable, or even one of the Greens' candidates," Yates said. And, the budget? While political paralysis continues in Paris, the 2026 budget remains in limbo, and economists say it's increasingly likely that this year's budget is rolled into next year as a stop-gap measure. Deutsche Bank's Yacine Rouimi on Monday said that if the government collapsed, as it has now, then France would likely operate under a special law, "maintaining spending near the 2025 framework, with the deficit landing around 5.0–5.4 % of GDP." "It's not impossible that we'll see fresh elections soon," Rouimi said. If Macron does opt to choose a new prime minister from a different party, such as the Socialist Party, that could mean reforms or spending cuts that were tabled by previous administrations, and which failed, could be sliced and slimmed down further. Macron "may appoint a prime minister from the centre-left (or even the far right). However, this would likely open the door to some painful reversals of his previous pro-growth structural reforms (such as the increase in the pension age) and fiscal slippage," Salomon Fiedler, economisst at Berenberg Bank, noted in emailed comments on Monday. French President Emmanuel Macron faces severe political instability following Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu's resignation after only 27 days, marking the third such failed administration amidst persistent parliamentary deadlock. The inability to form a stable government stems from deep divisions over budget and policy demands, notably the critical need to address France's projected 5.8% GDP budget deficit for 2024. This recurring paralysis, initiated by inconclusive elections after Macron dissolved parliament, prevents consensus on essential spending cuts and tax rises. Macron's limited options are fraught with economic risks, including appointing a sixth prime minister or potentially dissolving parliament for fresh elections. Selecting a PM from a rival party, such as the Socialist Party, could lead to "painful reversals" of prior pro-growth structural reforms (e.g., pension age increase) and increased "fiscal slippage," as noted by Berenberg Bank. New parliamentary elections are deemed catastrophic by analysts, given the strong polling performance of Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally (32% leading voter polls), which would exacerbate political polarization. The ongoing political paralysis significantly jeopardizes France's fiscal outlook, leaving the 2026 budget in limbo and likely necessitating a roll-over of the 2025 framework. Deutsche Bank suggests that under a collapsed government, France would operate under special law, potentially leading to a deficit of 5.0–5.4% of GDP. This highly negative sentiment and pessimistic tone reflect broader market concerns regarding delayed fiscal consolidation and continued policy uncertainty.
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