Invitation to year-end report livestream on 29 January 2026

Paradox Interactive will publish its fiscal 2025 year-end report on 29 January 2026 at 08:00 CET and will host a livestream at 12:00 CET on its YouTube channel where CEO Fredrik Wester and CFO Alexander Bricca will present fourth-quarter and full-year results and answer investor questions. The report will be available on the company’s investor site, questions may be submitted to IR in advance or during the presentation, and Paradox’s shares trade on Nasdaq Stockholm First North Premier under ticker PDX.

Analysis

Market structure: Paradox (PDX on Nasdaq Stockholm First North Premier) is a small-cap, high-margin niche publisher; a clean beat or upbeat 2026 release cadence (DLC/expansions for franchises like Stellaris/Crusader Kings) can produce >20–30% equity moves given low float and 6m MAU. Direct winners are mid-tail niche-content platforms and middleware partners; large-cap publishers (TTWO, ATVI) are neutral-to-loser if capital rotates to higher-growth niche titles. Cross-asset: expect localized SEK strength on an upside surprise (0.5–1% intraday) and a small rise in implied volatility for Nordic small-cap options; IG credit and commodities unaffected.

Risk assessment: Immediate (days) risk is an earnings-driven volatility spike on 29 Jan; short-term (weeks) risk is guidance disappointment or revealed cost overruns; long-term (quarters) risk includes failed new IP launches or regulatory action on monetization (EU/UK loot-box scrutiny). Tail scenarios: a major server/security outage or franchise litigation could cut revenues >30% YoY; hidden dependency is heavy reliance on a few titles and third-party digital storefronts (Steam/console) which amplify distribution risk. Key catalysts: dev updates, FY25 numbers, MAU and recurring revenue % disclosed in the call.

Trade implications: Event-driven volatility trade is preferred: capture directional or vol via options/CFDs sized small relative to AUM (1–3%); if positive guidance, expect a 20–40% re-rate within 1–3 months. Relative-value: long PDX vs short Take-Two (TTWO) expresses niche-midcap upside vs large-cap live-service cyclicality; entry window: open positions 1–2 trading days before livestream to avoid information leakage and trim 25–50% within 5 trading days after the print. Sector: rotate 1–3% from broad capex-heavy gaming names into European niche publishers.

Contrarian angles: Consensus may underweight the World of Darkness IP and DLC long-tail revenue; if management signals higher recurring revenue mix (≥40% of sales), upside is underappreciated and warrants adding to holdings. Conversely, the market can overreact to short-term MAU dips — a >5% QoQ MAU decline should be treated as a material negative and trigger trimming. Historical parallel: Paradox has shown post-release durability (2016–2020 DLC-driven revenue), so a shallow beat + strong guidance often produces multi-month outperformance rather than single-day spikes.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a tactical 2–3% long position in Paradox Interactive (PDX:Nasdaq Stockholm FN Premier) using cash or CFD ahead of the 29 Jan earnings; set a stop-loss at -15% and a profit target to trim at +30% within 1–3 months; size to 0.5–1% per fund strategy if concentrated.
• If liquid options or equivalents exist, buy an ATM straddle sized to 1% of portfolio notional with ~30–60 day expiry centered on the 29 Jan event to capture an anticipated IV spike; hedge vega exposure by selling 1/3 notional if implied vol > historical vol by >50%.
• Execute a pair trade: long PDX 2% vs short Take-Two (TTWO:NASDAQ) 1.5% to capture relative upside from niche strategy titles; rebalance if PDX outperforms by >25% or TTWO outperforms by >15% within 3 months.
• Monitor three headline metrics in the 29 Jan report and call over next 48 hours: 1) recurring revenue % (threshold >=40% supports add), 2) MAU change QoQ (decline >5% = reduce position by 50%), 3) 2026 release cadence/guidance (miss on unit roadmap = exit within 7 trading days).