Florida Home Sales Up, Prices Leveling in Sept.

Florida's housing market demonstrated significant strength in September 2025, with existing single-family home sales increasing 13.6% year-over-year and condo-townhouse sales rising 8%, primarily attributed to recent lows in mortgage rates. This marks a notable shift, as single-family sales recorded only their third annual increase in 2025 and condo-townhouse sales their first in 17 months, complemented by two consecutive months of rising pending sales. While median sales prices are leveling off—single-family prices remained flat at $410,000 and condo-townhouse prices dipped 4.8% to $299,000—inventory is stabilizing, indicating the market may be nearing a bottom, with future trends largely contingent on mortgage rate fluctuations.

Analysis

Florida's housing market demonstrated significant momentum in September 2025, with existing single-family home sales surging 13.6% year-over-year and condo-townhouse sales increasing 8%. This marks a notable recovery, as single-family sales recorded only their third annual increase in 2025, and condo-townhouse sales saw their first year-over-year rise in 17 months. The primary driver for this uptick is attributed to recent lows in mortgage rates, specifically the 30-year fixed rate hovering just above 6.5% in August, combined with buyer expectations of future rate cuts.

Despite robust sales growth, median sales prices are showing signs of leveling off or slight declines. The statewide median sales price for single-family homes remained flat year-over-year at $410,000 in September, while condo-townhouse median prices decreased 4.8% to $299,000. Concurrently, inventory levels are stabilizing, with single-family homes at a 5.1-months’ supply and condo-townhouses at a 9.1-months’ supply, suggesting the market may be nearing a bottom.

New pending sales reinforce this positive trend, with single-family homes up 7% and condo-townhouses up 6.6% year-over-year for two consecutive months. While this indicates a potential shift towards longer-term positive sales growth, the market's future trajectory remains highly dependent on mortgage rate fluctuations. The current "moderately positive" sentiment (score 0.6) and "optimistic" tone reflect these improving conditions.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Monitor mortgage rate trends closely, as they are identified as the key determinant for continued market momentum and demand in Florida.
• Evaluate specific sub-markets within Florida, noting the divergence in price performance between single-family homes (flat YoY) and condo-townhouses (down 4.8% YoY).
• Consider potential entry points for long-term positions given signs of market bottoming and stabilizing inventory, particularly if mortgage rates remain favorable or decline further.