Will Macy's (M) Beat Estimates Again in Its Next Earnings Report?

Macy's (M) is positioned for a potential earnings beat in its upcoming September 3, 2025 report, supported by a historical trend of exceeding estimates with an average surprise of 15.21% over the last two quarters. The department store retailer currently holds a positive Zacks Earnings ESP of +7.53% and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), a combination that historically predicts earnings beats approximately 70% of the time, indicating growing bullish sentiment among analysts for its near-term performance.

Analysis

Macy's (M) shows strong quantitative indicators for a potential earnings beat in its next quarterly report, scheduled for September 3, 2025. The company has a recent history of outperformance, with an average earnings surprise of 15.21% over the last two quarters, as cited by the report. Specifically, it reported a 16.13% surprise in the penultimate quarter and a 14.29% surprise in the most recent one. The primary forward-looking signal is the combination of a positive Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) of +7.53% and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). According to the underlying research methodology, this pairing has historically resulted in a positive earnings surprise approximately 70% of the time. The positive ESP indicates that the most recent analyst estimates, which are often based on the latest information, are trending more bullish than the broader consensus, pointing to growing optimism regarding the company's near-term earnings power.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors with a short-term, event-driven focus could view Macy's positive Earnings ESP of +7.53% as a bullish indicator for a potential upside surprise in its upcoming earnings report.
• Given the stock maintains a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), the positive earnings signal should be weighed against a neutral fundamental outlook, suggesting this may be more of a tactical trading opportunity than a long-term strategic investment.
• It is prudent to monitor analyst estimate revisions and any changes to the Earnings ESP as the September 3rd reporting date approaches, as these are the primary drivers of the positive short-term thesis.
• Investors should note that while the probability of a beat is high based on this specific metric, an earnings beat does not guarantee a positive stock price reaction.