Less than a third of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, lowest in either term

An AP‑NORC poll conducted Dec. 4–8 of 1,146 U.S. adults finds President Trump’s approval on core issues has slipped sharply since March, with approval of his handling of the economy down to 31% from 40% (the lowest level in AP‑NORC for his terms), immigration down to 38% from 49% and crime to 43% from 53%, while overall job approval is 36% (down from 42%). Republicans remain largely supportive but less so than earlier in the year (economic approval among Republicans fell from 78% to 69%), and Trump retains relatively stronger ratings on border security (50%) versus immigration, even as two‑thirds of Americans (68%) still judge the economy “poor”; approval for his management of the federal government (35%) and health care (~30%) are also weak. The slide on issues that were pillars of his political strength raises potential vulnerabilities for the GOP heading into the 2026 midterms and could complicate the administration’s policy choices and messaging.

Analysis

An AP-NORC poll of 1,146 U.S. adults conducted Dec. 4–8 (±4 percentage points) shows material deterioration in President Trump’s strength on issues that were previously pillars of his political appeal: approval for his handling of the economy fell to 31% from 40% in March, immigration approval dropped to 38% from 49%, and crime fell to 43% from 53%, while overall job approval declined to 36% from 42%. Republican support has softened as well — approval of Trump’s economic stewardship among Republicans fell to 69% from 78% in March — even as two-thirds of adults (68%) still describe the national economy as “poor.”

Approval on border security remains relatively higher at 50% (vs. 55% in September), driven in part by independents, but immigration actions such as mass deportations are increasingly unpopular; management of the federal government (35%, down from 43%) and health care (~30%) also register weak ratings, with the poll taken amid a fight over Affordable Care Act subsidies that are due to expire. Commentary in the survey highlights tariff and trade concerns — a voter cited import duties as contributing to inflationary pressures — linking trade policy directly to economic sentiment.

These results imply rising political risk heading into the 2026 midterms and potential policy volatility around trade, immigration enforcement and health-care legislation; the provided signals show moderately negative sentiment (–0.45) but only a small market-impact score (0.15), suggesting limited immediate market reaction but elevated uncertainty that could translate into episodic volatility if policy fights (e.g., ACA subsidies, tariffs, deportation operations) intensify. Investors should therefore treat near-term policy announcements and subsequent congressional negotiations as primary catalysts for re‑pricing in politically sensitive sectors.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Monitor upcoming policy milestones closely — notably ACA subsidy negotiations and any tariff announcements — as these are the most likely near-term catalysts for sector re-pricing,
• Reduce concentrated directional exposure to domestically sensitive sectors (health care providers/insurers and firms with high import exposure) until policy clarity improves,
• Use tactical hedges or lower-duration positions to guard against episodic volatility given moderately negative political sentiment and the elevated uncertainty heading into the 2026 midterms,
• Favor maintaining liquidity and some defensive positioning while tracking subsequent AP-NORC or comparable polling for signs of stabilization or further deterioration that would change the risk-reward on political-impact trades