Iran launches retaliatory strikes on Israel and U.S. assets after security chief Larijani is killed

Iran has escalated attacks targeting U.S. assets in the Middle East and Israel in apparent retaliation for the killing of security chief Ali Larijani. Expect near-term risk-off moves: potential Brent upside roughly $1–3/bbl, outperformance in defense and oil-related names, and wider EM risk premia with sovereign spreads possibly widening ~10–40 bps; monitor oil, regional equities, and Treasury/FX flows closely.

Analysis

Iran has escalated attacks targeting U.S. assets in the Middle East and Israel in apparent retaliation for the killing of security chief Ali Larijani. Expect near-term risk-off moves: potential Brent upside roughly $1–3/bbl, outperformance in defense and oil-related names, and wider EM risk premia with sovereign spreads possibly widening ~10–40 bps; monitor oil, regional equities, and Treasury/FX flows closely.