These stocks will move the most from Nvidia’s AI earnings report

Ahead of Nvidia's earnings report, Goldman Sachs estimates a potential share swing of 6.4%, less than the stock's 8.5% average post-earnings move over the past eight quarters; UBS identifies Super Micro Computer (SMCI), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and Vertiv Holdings (VRT) as stocks historically exhibiting significant volatility following Nvidia's reports, with SMCI showing an average move of nearly 12%. While UBS anticipates Nvidia's Q1 earnings to meet expectations, forecasts for Q2 revenue guidance are mixed, though JPMorgan suggests the stock could remain stable even with a lower guide if the back-half outlook is positive.

Analysis

Nvidia's upcoming quarterly results are a focal point for market participants, with options pricing, per Goldman Sachs estimates, implying a 6.4% share swing, notably less than its 8.5% average realized move over the past eight earnings reports, indicating a potential underestimation of market volatility. Nvidia itself has historically seen an average 8.9% share movement post-earnings and, as per the article, has risen about 1% year-to-date in 2025. UBS analysis identifies several other stocks with significant historical price movements following Nvidia's announcements: Super Micro Computer (SMCI) has demonstrated an average move of nearly 12% and has gained approximately 36% year-to-date in 2025. In contrast, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Vertiv Holdings (VRT), which have historically moved an average of 4.8% and 4.5% respectively, are down nearly 6% and almost 5% year-to-date. Arista Networks (ANET) and Marvell Technology (MRVL) also exhibit sensitivity, with average moves of 3.9%, but have seen substantial year-to-date declines of over 16% and 41% respectively. Regarding the earnings themselves, UBS anticipates Nvidia's Q1 results will meet expectations, but notes divided investor sentiment on Q2 revenue guidance, with few expecting an upward revision—a shift from Nvidia's common '$2b beat & $2b raise' pattern. JPMorgan, however, suggests Nvidia's stock could maintain its position even with a lower Q2 revenue guide, provided a strong outlook for the second half of the year is communicated, though the earnings print is anticipated to be complex to interpret.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should anticipate potentially higher-than-implied volatility for Nvidia's shares post-earnings and acknowledge the significant sympathetic price movements historically observed in related stocks like Super Micro Computer, AMD, and Vertiv.
• Particular attention should be paid to Nvidia's Q2 revenue guidance and its narrative for the second half of the year, as these factors are likely to be more influential on stock performance than the Q1 results, especially given the mixed expectations for near-term revenues.
• Given the historical volatility linkage and divergent year-to-date performances, investors may consider reviewing and potentially adjusting positions in Super Micro Computer, AMD, Vertiv, Arista Networks, and Marvell Technology, or exploring hedging strategies around Nvidia's earnings event.