One and One Green Technologies shares surge on copper venture By Investing.com

Shares of One and One Green Technologies jumped 29% after the company announced a new Luzon copper-gold ore tailings recovery venture to partner with small-scale miners, process tailings at its plant and export recovered metals. The company cited an International Copper Study Group estimate of a 150,000 metric ton copper supply deficit in 2026 and S&P Global's projection of a 10 million metric ton imbalance by 2040, framing the project as an integrated procurement-smelting-export response to tightening copper markets. One and One will leverage its Philippines license to import/process hazardous waste and its recycling technology to capture value from recycled copper and primary tailings sources.

Analysis

Announcements by speculative recyclers claiming access to tailings are more of a supply-option than an immediate supply shock: mobilizing low-grade secondary copper requires demonstrated recovery rates, logistics for concentrate-grade upgrading, and capital to scale smelting or tolling, so any material offset to primary mine deficits is likely measured in years not weeks. The marginal economic impact will show up first in scrap premia and treatment-charge dynamics at regional smelters — if recovered material can be blended to meet mill feed specs, it will compress processors’ feed costs and lower TC/RCs, benefiting low-cost integrated producers while squeezing high-cost juniors.

Local permitting, hazardous-waste classification, and export logistics are the principal operational hurdles that create binary outcomes: a few successful pilot projects can validate economics and re-rate assets, whereas a single regulatory reversal or community stoppage can wipe out expected incremental supply and sentiment. Market participants tend to misprice execution risk in microcaps; the pathway from headline to shipped concentrate involves at least two high-friction milestones (demonstrated metallurgical recovery and firm offtake/tolling contracts) which should be used as event-driven catalysts to re-price risk.

Macro second-order: scalable tailings recovery reduces the marginal cost floor for copper only if multiple projects replicate recoveries and if downstream capacity absorbs incremental volume — otherwise recovered copper will be diverted to spot markets and primarily blunt price spikes, not create structural downward pressure. Volatility amplification is likely in the near term as headline-driven flows hit illiquid equities; longer-term price effects hinge on aggregate recovered tonnage vs. growing demand from electrification and data-center buildout.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Initiate a small-sized short on the microcap recycler (YDDL): size 0.5–1.0% NAV via borrow or buy 3–6 month puts where available. Rationale: high execution and regulatory risk; target 50–70% downside if pilot/permits fail; stop-loss at 25% adverse move due to headline-driven squeezes.
• Go long high-quality, low-cost copper producers (e.g., FCX, SCCO) on 12–24 month view: size 2–4% NAV. Risk/reward: these capture majority of price upside if secondary supply disappoints; set protective 20% stop and take profits in tranches at 30–50% gains.
• Pair trade for event risk: long FCX (1.5% NAV) / short YDDL (1.0% NAV) to isolate copper-price upside from microcap execution risk. Expect positive carry if copper rallies; unwind short leg after completion/failure of the recycler’s first pilot shipment.
• Buy 9–18 month call exposure to copper via COPX or copper futures options (HG options if liquid): use 1–2% NAV in calls to levermaticly express bullish structural demand vs. uncertain secondary supply. Risk: time decay; mitigate by rolling if recovery-rate disclosures are delayed beyond 12 months.