Invitation to presentation of the fourth quarter and full year 2025 results

Tele2 will publish its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on 28 January 2026 (results release at 07:00 CEST, webcast and teleconference presentation at 09:00 CEST) with CEO Jean Marc Harion and EVP/Group CFO Peter Landgren hosting the session; registration and dial-in details are available on tele2.com. For context, Tele2 reported 2024 revenue of SEK 30 billion and underlying EBITDAaL of SEK 11 billion; the upcoming release is the next substantive update for investors on the company’s 2025 operating performance and potential changes to outlook or capital allocation.

Analysis

Market structure: The scheduled Tele2 (TEL2 A/B) Q4 & FY2025 release is a catalyst primarily for Nordic telecom equity and credit curves — direct winners are active long/short traders in TEL2 and regional peers (TELIA.ST, TEL:NO) who can arbitrage company-specific news; losers include over-levered suppliers if CAPEX cuts are announced. Expect a 5–12% intraday move on a surprise (±>5% vs consensus EBITDAaL) with SEK likely to move 0.5–1% on a clear beat/miss; corporate bond spreads could tighten/widen by ~10–50bps on guidance shifts. Volatility profile: options IV typically rises 20–40% into such prints and mean-reverts quickly after release.

Risk assessment: Tail risks include an EU/Swedish regulatory action on spectrum or wholesale access, a major network outage, or a guidance cut that increases net debt/EBITDAaL above ~2.5x, each capable of a >20% equity drawdown and 100–200bps spread widening in bonds. Immediate (days) risks are IV spikes and liquidity; short-term (weeks) is reputational/peer repricing; long-term (quarters) is structural ARPU pressure or IoT growth failure. Hidden dependencies: wholesale agreements, roaming/IOT contract renewals, and SEK FX exposure to equipment costs can flip margins quickly. Key catalysts: subscriber net adds, ARPU, CAPEX guidance, dividend policy and any M&A commentary.

Trade implications: Direct plays — consider a modest 2–3% long position in TEL2 B initiated 3–5 trading days before 28 Jan 2026 to capture potential upside from operational beats, size to risk tolerances and set stop at -6%/TP +12%. Options — if you expect a large move, buy a 30–45 day ATM straddle sized to 0.5–1% notional or a call spread (buy 0–5% OTM, sell 10–15% OTM) to cap cost; expect to exit same day or within one week. Pair trade — long TEL2 B vs short TELIA.ST (equal notional 1–2%) if you expect company-specific execution to diverge; unwind within 1–4 weeks post-print.

Contrarian angles: Consensus will treat this as routine; that misses binary outcomes — an announced asset sale or accelerated share buyback could rerate TEL2 by >15% post-print. IV is often underpricing downside tail: selling premium before the print is risky; buying protection (cheap 10–15% OTM puts) at <0.5% notional could hedge a 20% downside. Historical parallels: prior Tele2 post-earnings moves averaged ±8–15% on surprises; therefore, disciplined sizing and explicit triggers (EBITDAaL miss >5%, net debt/EBITDAaL >2.5x) should govern exits.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a tactical 2–3% long position in Tele2 B (TEL2 B) between 23–26 Jan 2026, with a stop-loss at -6% and a take-profit at +12%; size to portfolio volatility and mark-to-market daily.
• Buy a 30–45 day ATM straddle on TEL2 (size 0.5–1% notional) 2–3 days before 28 Jan 2026 to capture a 5–12% anticipated move; close position same day post-release or within 3 trading days to avoid post-event IV crush.
• If preferring directional with capped risk, execute a call spread (buy 0–5% OTM, sell 10–15% OTM) sized 1% notional, enter 3 days pre-report and exit within 5 trading days after the print if beat occurs.
• Construct a relative-value pair: long TEL2 B 1–2% vs short TELIA.ST equal notional if you believe Tele2 execution will outpace peers; monitor divergence targets of >5% relative performance over 1–4 weeks to exit.
• Reduce high-beta Nordic consumer tech exposure by 1–2% and redeploy into defensive telco credit if Tele2 guidance implies CAPEX cuts; unwind if Tele2 net debt/EBITDAaL stays below 2.0x and dividend is intact.