Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) Earnings Expected to Grow: What to Know Ahead of Next Week's Release

Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) is scheduled to report earnings for the quarter ended July 2025 on August 26, with consensus estimates projecting EPS of $1.28 (+7.6% YoY) and revenues of $6.86 billion (+12.4% YoY). Despite a slight 0.77% upward revision to the EPS estimate over the past 30 days, BNS's 0% Zacks Earnings ESP and #3 Zacks Rank suggest a low probability of an earnings beat. This is further underscored by its recent performance, having missed consensus EPS by -7.02% last quarter and only beating estimates once in the past four quarters, indicating it is not a compelling candidate for a positive earnings surprise.

Analysis

Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) is approaching its July 2025 earnings report with consensus estimates projecting significant year-over-year growth, specifically a 7.6% increase in EPS to $1.28 and a 12.4% rise in revenues to $6.86 billion. While the consensus EPS estimate has seen a minor upward revision of 0.77% in the past 30 days, predictive indicators cast a cautious outlook on the likelihood of an earnings beat. The bank's Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) is 0%, indicating a lack of recent upward revisions from analysts with the latest information. This neutral signal, combined with a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold), makes it difficult to conclusively predict a positive surprise. This outlook is further substantiated by the bank's recent history of underperformance against expectations, having beaten consensus EPS estimates only once in the last four quarters and posting a notable -7.02% miss in its most recent report. Consequently, while the baseline forecast is for fundamental growth, the probability of BNS exceeding these expectations appears low.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Given the 0% Earnings ESP and a track record of missing estimates in three of the last four quarters, investors should be cautious about positioning for a pre-earnings rally and consider the heightened risk of an in-line result or a miss.
• Traders should note that the combination of a neutral Zacks Rank #3 and a 0% ESP makes BNS an uncompelling candidate for a tactical long trade based solely on the expectation of an earnings beat.
• Long-term investors should look past the headline numbers on August 26 and focus on management's discussion of business conditions, as forward-looking guidance will be more critical in determining the stock's sustainable value than a modest beat or miss.