Buy or Sell AIG Stock Ahead of Its Upcoming Earnings?

AIG (NYSE:AIG) is scheduled to release its Q2 2025 earnings on August 6, with consensus estimates projecting $1.60 EPS and a 4.5% revenue increase to $6.85 billion. Following a challenging Q1 due to catastrophic losses, the company, which is now heavily focused on property and casualty insurance, expects a recovery in Q2 underwriting results, bolstered by commercial lines and international expansion. Historically, AIG has shown a positive one-day post-earnings stock return approximately 74% of the time over the past five years, with a median positive return of 2.6%, offering a historical context for potential market reactions.

Analysis

American International Group (AIG) is poised to report its Q2 2025 earnings with consensus estimates projecting an EPS of $1.60 on revenues of $6.85 billion, a 4.5% year-over-year increase. This report is critical as it follows a challenging first quarter impacted by significant catastrophic losses. The company's strategic pivot to focus on property and casualty insurance, following the spinoff of its life and retirement segment, will be under scrutiny. Management's outlook anticipates a recovery in underwriting results for the second quarter, driven by expansion in commercial and international lines as well as efficiency initiatives. However, this forward-looking optimism is contrasted by the company's trailing twelve-month performance, which includes a net loss of $1.9 billion on $27 billion in revenue. From a technical perspective, historical data provides a bullish tilt for the post-earnings reaction; over the past five years, AIG's stock has risen on the day following earnings 74% of the time, with a median gain of 2.6% on positive days versus a median loss of -1.3% on negative days.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should weigh the positive consensus estimates and strong historical post-earnings performance against the company's recent trailing twelve-month net loss before establishing a position.
• Monitor the Q2 underwriting results closely, as a confirmed recovery from Q1's catastrophic losses is essential to validate the current strategic direction and positive outlook.
• Event-driven traders could consider the high statistical probability (74%) of a positive one-day return post-announcement, but must also factor in the potential for a negative reaction if results miss expectations.
• Long-term holders should assess the report for tangible evidence of progress in the commercial and international expansion, as this is a key driver for sustainable growth beyond the quarterly earnings cycle.