Earnings Preview: General Mills (GIS) Q4 Earnings Expected to Decline

General Mills (GIS) is expected to report a year-over-year decline in earnings and revenue for the quarter ended May 2025, with consensus estimates at $0.71 EPS (-29.7% Y/Y) and $4.6 billion in revenue (-2.4% Y/Y). While the consensus EPS estimate has been revised slightly upward, the stock carries a Zacks Rank #4, and its Earnings ESP of +0.80% makes it difficult to predict an earnings beat, suggesting investors should consider other factors ahead of the earnings release on June 25, 2025.

Analysis

General Mills (GIS) is approaching its Q4 May 2025 earnings report with Wall Street anticipating a significant year-over-year decline in earnings and a modest reduction in revenues. Consensus estimates project earnings of $0.71 per share, a substantial 29.7% decrease from the prior year, and revenues of $4.6 billion, down 2.4% year-over-year. Despite this generally negative outlook, the consensus EPS estimate has seen a marginal upward revision of 0.44% over the last 30 days. The company exhibits a positive Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) of +0.80%, indicating that the Most Accurate Estimate is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, which typically suggests recent analyst bullishness on earnings prospects. However, this potentially positive signal is tempered by GIS currently holding a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). According to Zacks' methodology, this specific combination of a positive ESP and a Rank #4 makes it difficult to conclusively predict an earnings beat. Historically, General Mills has a strong track record, having surpassed consensus EPS estimates in each of the last four quarters, with the most recent reported quarter showing a +5.26% surprise ($1.00 actual vs. $0.95 expected). The earnings release, scheduled for June 25, 2025, will be closely watched, as a performance better than these lowered expectations could drive the stock higher, though the sustainability of any price movement and future earnings expectations will largely hinge on management's commentary regarding business conditions. The overall sentiment for GIS is noted as negative (-0.2), contributing to a cautious outlook despite the positive ESP and history of beats.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should closely monitor General Mills' actual Q4 results on June 25, 2025, against the consensus estimates of $0.71 EPS and $4.6 billion revenue, as an upside surprise on these lowered expectations could provide a near-term catalyst for the stock.
• Particular attention should be paid to management's guidance and discussion of business conditions during the earnings call, as this will be crucial for assessing the medium-term outlook and the sustainability of any stock price reaction, especially given the anticipated significant year-over-year earnings decline.
• A cautious approach is warranted due to the conflicting signals: a positive Earnings ESP of +0.80% and recent upward EPS estimate revisions are offset by a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) and an overall expectation of sharply lower earnings, making GIS not a compelling candidate for an earnings beat based on the provided model.