Sugar futures slipped modestly today after crude oil tumbled more than 2%, weakening ethanol economics and likely prompting mills to divert cane to sugar and further swell global supplies; prices have already declined to multi-week/multi-year lows amid production gains in key suppliers. India reported Oct-Nov production up 43% to 4.11 MMT and ISMA has lifted its 2025/26 India estimate to 31 MMT (other forecasts range higher), Brazil’s Conab raised 2025/26 output to 45 MMT and Unica showed Center‑South sugar up 8.7% in early November, while Thailand and other producers are also set to expand output. Forecasters now expect a sizable 2025/26 surplus — ISO 1.625 MMT, Czarnikow 8.7 MMT and USDA a record 189.3 MMT of global production with stocks rising to 41.2 MMT — a bearish backdrop that pressures prices despite India approving a 1.5 MMT export quota that could still increase outward flows.
March NY world sugar (SBH26) and March London ICE white sugar (SWH26) slipped modestly today (-0.07% and -0.19% respectively) after WTI crude plunged more than 2% to a seven‑week low, a move that weakens ethanol economics and increases the incentive for mills to divert cane from ethanol to sugar. Prices have already retreated to multi‑week and multi‑year lows this month as markets price in rising global supplies. Supply signals are strongly bearish: India’s Oct‑Nov production jumped +43% y/y to 4.11 MMT and ISMA raised its 2025/26 India forecast to 31 MMT (other agency forecasts range higher), Brazil’s Conab lifted 2025/26 output to 45 MMT while Unica showed Center‑South output +8.7% y/y and cumulative output at 39.179 MMT, and Thailand also projects crop growth. Forecasters now expect a surplus—ISO +1.625 MMT, Czarnikow 8.7 MMT—and the USDA projects global production of 189.318 MMT with ending stocks rising +7.5% to 41.188 MMT, all reinforcing a bearish fundamental backdrop. Market implications are clear: abundant supplies and weaker ethanol spreads have driven London and NY nearest‑futures to multi‑year lows and increase downside risk for sugar prices despite India’s 1.5 MMT export quota (below earlier expectations). Key catalysts that could reverse the trend are a sustained crude/ethanol rebound, tighter-than‑expected export policy from India, or weather shocks to cane crops; absent those, the balance of evidence supports further price pressure in the near term.
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strongly negative
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-0.70
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