U.S. data flow to restart; Nvidia earnings loom large - what’s moving markets

U.S. stock futures are rising ahead of a busy week featuring the restart of official economic data, including the September jobs report which will inform the Fed's December rate decision, and Nvidia's highly anticipated earnings, a critical bellwether for the AI sector amidst valuation concerns. Concurrently, Japan's economy contracted 1.8% in Q3 2025, its first decline in six quarters due to tariff-affected exports, while gold and oil prices are lower, with oil easing after Russian port loadings resumed.

Analysis

U.S. stock futures are indicating a positive start to the week, driven by the anticipated restart of official U.S. economic data and key corporate earnings. Sentiment is further bolstered by signs of softening U.S. tariff stances, including a deal with Switzerland for a $200 billion investment, and a rebound in tech stocks, which eased recent concerns over AI-driven valuations. The Nasdaq Composite notably outperformed last Friday.

Nvidia's (NVDA) upcoming quarterly results are a critical bellwether for the AI sector, given its 1,000% stock surge since late 2022 and its $5 trillion market valuation. These earnings will be closely watched amidst growing concerns about frothy valuations and a potential bubble forming around the AI craze. Additionally, Home Depot (HD), Target (TGT), and Walmart (WMT) earnings will offer insights into the crucial holiday shopping season.

The release of September's U.S. jobs report, delayed by the government shutdown, will significantly influence the Federal Reserve's December interest rate decision. While the Fed previously cut rates, concerns about a lack of up-to-date data suggest policymakers might keep borrowing costs steady. Internationally, Japan's economy contracted 1.8% year-over-year in Q3 2025, its first decline in six quarters due to tariff-affected exports, though economists view it as a momentary hurdle.

Commodity markets saw gold prices fall due to a stronger dollar and reduced expectations for immediate Fed rate cuts, while oil prices slipped as Russia's Novorossiysk port resumed crude loadings, alleviating supply disruption fears. These movements reflect broader market reactions to monetary policy expectations and geopolitical developments.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Closely monitor Nvidia's earnings for insights into AI sector health and valuation sustainability, as its performance is a key bellwether.
• Pay close attention to the upcoming U.S. jobs report and other economic data, as these will heavily influence the Federal Reserve's December interest rate decision and broader monetary policy.
• Assess the potential market impact of softening tariff stances and the stability in commodity prices, which could affect inflation outlooks and specific industry sectors.