Kushner’s Affinity withdraws from Warner Bros. takeover battle

Jared Kushner’s Affinity Partners has withdrawn from financing Paramount Skydance’s $108.4 billion including-debt hostile bid for Warner Bros., relinquishing roughly $200 million of planned equity and saying investment dynamics have changed since it joined in October. Warner is preparing to reject Paramount’s offer over financing and other terms, while Paramount’s rival bid aims to upend Netflix’s agreed $82.7 billion deal and is backed by Saudi Arabia’s PIF, the Qatar Investment Authority and other Middle Eastern investors—raising antitrust and national-security scrutiny and prompting both sides to lobby the White House. The outcome will materially reshape media industry power between legacy studios and streaming platforms, regardless of which bidder prevails.

Analysis

Affinity Partners, the private equity firm founded by Jared Kushner, has withdrawn its roughly $200 million equity commitment to Paramount Skydance’s hostile $108.4 billion (including debt) bid for Warner Bros., saying the investment dynamics have changed since October. Warner Bros. is preparing to reject Paramount’s offer on financing and other terms, and the departure reduces a small but visible component of Paramount’s financing plan while leaving larger sovereign backers — Saudi PIF, Qatar Investment Authority and Abu Dhabi interests — still on the table.

The duel is framed against Netflix’s agreed $82.7 billion acquisition and carries significant antitrust and political risk; both bidders have offered multibillion-dollar breakup fees and are actively lobbying the White House, where President Trump has indicated he will weigh in. Affinity’s exit is symbolically notable given Kushner’s White House ties and the firm’s Middle East relationships, which could influence political optics even though $200 million is immaterial to a $108 billion deal.

Market signals show moderately negative sentiment toward Warner (WBD) and Paramount (PSKY) and a positive tilt for Netflix (NFLX), reflecting higher odds of the Netflix agreement prevailing as financing and terms for the Paramount approach face scrutiny. Key near-term catalysts for investors are Warner’s formal board response, any disclosure of committed financing or revised covenants from Paramount backers, and signals from regulators and the White House on antitrust and national-security concerns.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Reduce directional exposure to Paramount Skydance (PSKY) until it demonstrates committed financing or improved terms, as Affinity’s exit highlights funding and credibility risk
• Favor Netflix (NFLX) exposure modestly as the incumbent $82.7bn agreement now appears relatively more likely, while monitoring regulatory scrutiny that could still derail the deal
• Hold or hedge Warner Bros. (WBD) positions and prepare for elevated volatility around the board’s formal rejection and any escalation of rival bids, focusing on event-driven arbitrage opportunities
• Monitor White House commentary and formal antitrust signals closely and be ready to cut or hedge exposures if political or regulatory rhetoric intensifies, given the geopolitical backing of rival financing