The Zacks Analyst Blog Rigetti, IonQ and D-Wave Quantum

Rigetti Computing (RGTI) is projected to report a Q3 2025 loss per share of 5 cents and revenues of $2.39 million, with full-year 2025 revenue expected to decline by 19.7% to $8.7 million, primarily due to U.S. public-sector funding uncertainty. Despite these near-term revenue pressures and a Zacks 'Hold' rating, the company is advancing its quantum roadmap, including the rollout of its Cepheus-1-36Q system and plans for a 100+ qubit system by year-end, backed by $570 million in cash and strategic partnerships with Quanta Computer and NVIDIA. Recent $5.7 million in Novera QPU orders signal growing commercial demand beyond government labs, positioning Rigetti for long-term growth in quantum computing, reflected in its higher Price-to-Book ratio compared to peers.

Analysis

Rigetti Computing (RGTI) is projected to report a Q3 2025 loss per share of 5 cents on $2.39 million in revenue, with full-year 2025 revenue anticipated to decline 19.7% to $8.7 million. This near-term revenue pressure is primarily attributed to U.S. public-sector funding uncertainty, stemming from the expiration of the National Quantum Initiative and pending congressional reauthorization. The company carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) with a 0.00% Earnings ESP, suggesting a limited probability of beating estimates.

Despite these immediate revenue challenges, Rigetti demonstrates significant progress on its quantum roadmap and maintains a robust financial position. The recent rollout of the Cepheus-1-36Q system, featuring 99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity, and plans for a 100+ qubit system by year-end 2025, underscore its technical advancements. Furthermore, the company holds over $570 million in cash with no debt, providing a substantial cushion for continued system development.

Strategic partnerships, including a $100 million commitment from Quanta Computer Inc. and integration with NVIDIA's DGX Quantum platform, are crucial for scaling manufacturing and commercialization. Encouragingly, $5.7 million in Novera QPU orders for H1 2026 delivery to commercial entities validates demand beyond government labs. While RGTI's Price-to-Book ratio of 20.13 is higher than peers IONQ (16.93) and QBTS (13.99), this premium reflects stronger long-term growth expectations despite current revenue unevenness.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should maintain a patient 'hold' stance, acknowledging the near-term revenue headwinds from federal funding uncertainty while monitoring progress on key technical and commercial milestones.
• Focus on long-term indicators such as qubit fidelity improvements, successful system deliveries (e.g., 100+ qubit system), and the expansion of commercial Novera QPU sales, rather than solely on quarterly revenue figures.
• Evaluate the impact of strategic partnerships with Quanta and NVIDIA on accelerating market adoption and ecosystem development, as these are critical for Rigetti's long-term competitive positioning.