Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. (ASO) Earnings Expected to Grow: What to Know Ahead of Next Week's Release

Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO) is expected to report earnings for the quarter ended July 2025 on September 2nd, with consensus estimates projecting $2.12 EPS (+4.4% YoY) on $1.61 billion revenue (+4% YoY). However, the company currently exhibits a negative Earnings ESP of -9.15% and holds a Zacks Rank of #4, collectively indicating a low probability of an earnings beat. This outlook is reinforced by ASO's recent history of missing EPS estimates in three of the last four quarters, positioning it as an unlikely candidate for an upside surprise.

Analysis

Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO) is approaching its July quarter earnings report with consensus estimates pointing to year-over-year growth, specifically a 4.4% increase in EPS to $2.12 and a 4% rise in revenue to $1.61 billion. However, these baseline expectations are sharply contrasted by more recent, bearish analyst activity. The company's Zacks Earnings ESP is a significant -9.15%, indicating that the most recent analyst estimates have trended downwards and are below the broader consensus. This negative signal is compounded by a Zacks Rank of #4 (Sell), a combination that historically makes an earnings beat difficult to predict. Further reinforcing this cautious outlook is ASO's recent performance history, where it has missed consensus EPS estimates in three of the last four quarters, including a notable -16.48% negative surprise in the prior quarter. Consequently, despite the positive YoY growth projections, the underlying quantitative indicators and surprise history position ASO as an unfavorable candidate for an earnings beat.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Given the negative Earnings ESP of -9.15% and a Zacks Rank of #4 (Sell), investors should consider hedging or reducing long positions to mitigate the risk of a potential earnings miss and subsequent price decline.
• Focus critical attention on management's forward guidance during the earnings call, as this will be the primary determinant of the stock's sustainable direction, potentially overshadowing the headline earnings result.
• The company's track record of missing EPS estimates in three of the last four quarters provides a strong historical precedent that supports a cautious or bearish stance going into the announcement.