BoMill Year-End Report January – December 2025

BoMill reported strong commercial momentum in Q4 2025 with net sales of KSEK 10,857 (Q4 2024: KSEK 53) and Q4 net income after financial items of KSEK 476, while full-year sales rose to KSEK 17,125 (2024: KSEK 15,372) but the company remained loss-making with a FY net loss of KSEK -12,767 (2024: -16,706). The quarter included roughly MSEK 16 in orders from customers including AB InBev, Camgrain and Vivescia, an appointment of a new CFO, but cash and cash equivalents fell to KSEK 2,961 (year-earlier KSEK 17,179) and operating cash flow for the year was KSEK -14,218; management completed a directed share issue of ~MSEK 12 subsequently approved at an extraordinary general meeting to bolster liquidity.

Analysis

Market structure: BoMill’s Q4 order momentum (≈MSEK 16) and marquee customers (AB InBev, Camgrain, Vivescia) signal early commercial validation for a proprietary kernel-sorting technology; winners are grain processors, premium maltsters and large brewers who can extract yield/quality premiums, while undifferentiated grain traders and low-margin equipment vendors risk margin pressure. Patent-backed uniqueness gives BoMill pricing power in pilots but market share gains require scaling manufacturing and service; if BoMill converts ~50–70% of order backlog to revenue in 6–12 months it could command price premiums for sorted grain and force competitors to subsidize adoption.

Risks: Immediate risk (days–weeks) is execution on the directed share issue and cash receipt — cash at year-end SEK 2.96m versus annual cash burn ~SEK 14.2m implies runway <3 months without proceeds. Tail risks include large dilution (>20%), failed installations, or IP challenges from incumbents causing order cancellations; regulatory risk is low but adoption cycles in agriculture are historically 6–24 months. Key catalysts: conversion rates of the MSEK 16 orders, quarterly cash balance updates, and FY 2026 sales guidance.

Trades: Direct play is a small, conditional long in BOMILL (ticker BOMILL) sized to portfolio risk (1–2%) if net cash post-raise >SEK 12m and >50% backlog converts within 6 months; hedge with a 30% trailing stop or buy-call spreads if options exist. If conversion/cash thresholds fail, deploy a short or buy puts sized 0.5–1% targeting >30% downside within 3–6 months. Rotate modest capital into brewery/ malt consumers (e.g., ABI.BR 0.5–1%) if BoMill reports recurring SaaS/service revenues.

Contrarian view: Consensus likely underestimates conversion friction — pilots don’t equal recurring revenue and delivery scale matters; market may be overly optimistic on commercial ramp but overly pessimistic on IP defensibility. Historical parallels: agritech pilots (seed sorting, sensor tech) often show stepwise adoption with 2–3 year revenue cliffs; upside is asymmetric if BoMill secures recurring service contracts, producing 2–4x upside versus limited downside if dilution is capped.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Consider establishing a conditional 1–2% long position in BOMILL (ticker: BOMILL) only after verification that directed share issue proceeds have been received and net cash >= SEK 12m; set a hard stop at -30% and a price target of +200% within 12–24 months if >50% of Q4 orders (MSEK 16) convert to revenue in 6–12 months.
• If BoMill fails to confirm receipt of the MSEK 12 raise within 30 days or posts cash < SEK 8m on the next monthly update, initiate a 0.5–1% short position (or buy 3–6 month puts if liquid) targeting >=30% downside; cover if company announces new committed funding >SEK 10m or conversion of >70% backlog.
• Allocate 0.5–1% to AB InBev (ABI.BR) long to play short-term benefit if BoMill proves repeatable value to brewers; increase position by up to another 0.5% only after BoMill reports recurring service revenue or multi-site rollouts within 9–12 months.
• Monitor three KPIs weekly for trade management: (1) cash balance and proof of subscription receipts, (2) order-to-revenue conversion rate (target >50% within 6 months), and (3) delivery/installation timelines (target <120 days from order). Take action within 7 trading days if any KPI deviates by >25% from targets.